Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and a number of other nations in the region have cut diplomatic ties and closed their borders with Qatar.
It’s a significant step.
Qatar is a Sunni-Arab monarchy that, on paper, would seem to have much in common with the aforementioned Sunni-Arab nations.
Yet Middle Eastern politics are rarely as simple as that. The truth is that Saudi-Qatari tensions have been building for years now. A couple of issues are at play here.
First, the Qataris have simply pushed their luck too far. The Qatari government in Doha largely tolerates domestic financiers who throw money at Salafi-Jihadist groups like al Qaeda, and to a lesser degree, the Islamic State. Qatar also allows Iranian-aligned terrorist financiers to use Doha’s five-star hotels for meetings with Hamas officials. These activities upset Saudi Arabia and its bloc of Sunni-Arab allies.
But what really angers the Sunni monarchies is Qatar’s increasingly direct political flirtation with Iran. Sharing a vast natural gas field, Iran and Qatar cooperate for reasons of mutual economic benefit. And viewing Iran through an inherently political-sectarian lens, the Saudi bloc is infuriated by what they see as Qatar’s betrayal.
Second, there’s the evolution in Saudi Arabian domestic politics. Like Qatar, the Saudis once funded transnational jihadist groups (unfortunately, they continue to fund some Salafist organizations), but that support is declining. Today, Saudi foreign policy is increasingly defined by moderates such as Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, and Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin-Salman. Each of those leaders recognize that preventing Saudi Arabia’s post-oil boom economic collapse requires political reform and robust counter terrorism efforts.
And their leadership matters, because what the Saudis do sets the initiative for what the other Sunni monarchies do.
Then there’s Trump. Because by pressuring Qatar, the Saudi bloc are supporting President Trump’s effort to crack down on regional terrorist financing. In return for Trump’s renewed American support against Iran (the Saudi bloc perceived Obama as unreliable in this regard), the Saudi bloc want to show Trump that they can serve his agenda.
Political machinations aside, this shutdown is a big problem for Qatar. A peninsula on Saudi Arabia’s eastern coast, Qatar is highly vulnerable to border closures. And with Bahrain and the UAE also closing their borders, the Qatari government is now both politically and physically isolated. Much of Qatar’s food and material supply will now have to arrive via ships. Absent huge government subsidies, inflation will rise, and Qatar’s 2022 World Cup stadium constructions will suffer. The food point is especially important here. Traditionally, Arab protest movements have centered around food-inflation. And the Saudis know that the Qatari royal family will be deeply afraid of growing populist agitation.
What will happen next? The Saudis clearly believe that Qatar will back away from its Islamist feudalism. But I’m not so sure. Qatar’s longstanding Islamist links are woven deeply into its political strategy. It will struggle to change course. For that reason, I suspect a short term compromise is likely. Qatar will agree to crack down on private financiers, and take a some somewhat more skeptical line against Iran. In return, the Saudi bloc will lift their embargo.
Sustaining tensions, however, will remain.
