What would the first 100 days of a Donald Trump administration look like, and how would Americans react?
Frank Newport asks these questions in a new and interesting opinion column at Gallup. Near the top of his list, predictably, is Trump’s promise to “build a wall” to stop illegal immigration. Newport believes this would not go over so well, because Gallup and Pew polls have shown opposition to building a wall that would be paid for by Mexico, as Trump claims.
I’m not so convinced. Trump may be the most disliked candidate in modern polling history, but if we assume (as he does) that he somehow becomes president, he will have to have won over a lot of American voters. And since the wall is his main campaign pledge, it’s difficult to believe that the same voters would turn around and suddenly become upset when he took steps to build it.
Newport also only looks at recent polling on the subject. Prior to Trump’s announcement, polls on a border wall were more varied, likely due to the wording of the question by various pollsters, and the fact that the proposal wasn’t tied so closely to Trump’s candidacy and his early description of immigrants as “rapists.”
A CNN poll in 2013 found 62 percent of respondents believed border security should be the first priority when it comes to illegal immigration. In 2006, at least 10,000 people actually sent bricks to Congress as part of a campaign for a wall, and Congress did actually pass a short-lived provision requiring construction of a fence along the entire border.
If you suddenly made Trump less unpalatable to more people (and his election would likely imply that), the wall would likely be less controversial.
Newport suggests Trump would also take action to repeal trade deals in his first 100 days. I’m not convinced he could make any progress in this regard. It’s also not something the American people pay close attention to in the short run, although years later they might come to understand the effects and regret it.
On Trump’s suggestion of banning Muslims from entering the country, I agree with Newport that it wouldn’t be a very popular proposal among Democrats or Republicans. Then again, the working assumption that Trump gets elected implies necessarily that people don’t end up feeling that strongly about it even if they oppose it.
But a lot of people would react very strongly to this one — much more than the border wall — because it’s such a clearly exclusionary policy.
Finally, Newport deals with Obamacare. Full repeal, as Newport points out, does not poll well, mostly because people don’t want to go back to the days where pre-existing conditions could be denied and women had to pay a few bucks a month for birth control.
But Trump doesn’t seem committed to any particular approach on this issue, so he might actually end up in a good position to handle it. People don’t want certain parts repealed, but even liberals I’ve spoken to are outraged by the increase in premiums and deductibles and decrease in doctor availability. A Republican proposal that reduced prices and increased choice could easily become popular.
Newport does mention one of Trump’s proposals that could be popular with the American people — working with Republicans and Democrats. “[I]f Trump appears to be flexible in his approach to those from all parties and ideologies, and does, in fact, work toward getting these groups to work together, it would be a very strong positive as interpreted by the average American.”
Every candidate promises this, and no candidate tries very hard at it after being elected. But again, if Trump were somehow to win, it might just be a sign that ordinary people don’t find his proposals to be quite as horrific as the average political commentator does.
Ashe Schow is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
