From Sept. 11-15, Russia will conduct a massive military exercise, Vostok-2018. But while some Russian military exercises are concerning, this one shouldn’t alarm us too much.
For a start, these exercises will be taking place in Russia’s southern Far East, a long way from Eastern Europe. That matters because it ameliorates any concerns that this exercise is actually cover for an invasion of NATO member states.
But Vostok-2018 also offers a unique opportunity for NATO intelligence services to assess Russia’s full-scale warfighting doctrine. Russia will be using 300,000 troops, 1,000, aircraft and thousands of other pieces of equipment in the exercise, so it is obvious that President Putin is attempting to strengthen his combined arms maneuver capability. It’s a relevant interest because building that capability is a prerequisite for any future conventional attack on NATO.
By bringing all these elements together, however, NATO intelligence forces can learn how various Russian units are given orders, work together, and employ their individual tactics. Considering Russia’s high-competency electronic warfare teams, stand-off missile engagement units, and air defense forces, NATO has a vested interest in learning how Russia would fight it.
Yet there are broader U.S. strategic interests in witnessing Vostok-2018.
Most obviously, the fact that the exercise will also involve some forces from China and Mongolia. And while it might seem concerning that China is involved here, it shouldn’t be. Yes, both China and Russia share a strategic interest in degrading and displacing the U.S.-led international order. That they are cooperating is nothing new. That said, the U.S. intelligence opportunity to see how Chinese and Russian forces interact is a rare one.
That interaction has a valuable side benefit for America, because China’s participation sends a clear signal to India that it should double down on its improving relationship with the U.S. As the world’s most populous democracy, India shares values and interests with the U.S. and faces a sustained challenge from China. For those reasons, you can bet the Prime Minister Narendra Modi will pay close heed to the images of Chinese forces practicing maneuver warfare with Russia. President Trump should point to these exercises as he tries to persuade Modi to increase his military cooperation with the U.S. If he can do so, the U.S. will find itself shoulder-to-shoulder with another superpower with which to defend the democratic international order.
What of Mongolia? Well, it maintains good relations with the U.S. and has been invited here as an effort to appease any concerns that the exercises are designed to invade its territory (which is very close to where the exercises will be held).
Ultimately, then, for the U.S. and its allies this exercise is both a wake-up call and an educational opportunity. We are being reminded that China and Russia seek to dismantle the liberal rules-based order. But we’re also getting a rare chance to see how they might try to accomplish their agenda. And in that opportunity, we can better prepare to stop them.
