Visiting Washington last week, British Prime Minister Theresa May invited President Trump to make a state visit to the United Kingdom. British state visits are officially extended by the queen and involve a pageantry of dinners, speeches and military reviews. They also include riding with the queen in her state carriage (though, unfortunately for U.S. presidents, the Secret Service vetoes that part of the proceedings. The carriage, you see, is not as well armored as the Presidential limo).
Unsurprisingly, Trump has accepted the invitation and will travel to London later this year.
Still, it’s unusual for a president to be offered a U.K. state visit so soon after taking office. President Obama had to wait two years. But Trump is not Obama. Nor is Prime Minister May’s rationale for inviting Trump based on affection. Instead, May believes that unless she adorns Trump with high praise, he will disrupt the stability of the U.K.-U.S. special relationship. In short, May wants to get on Trump’s good side as soon as possible.
Unfortunately, it’s not that simple.
Because Trump’s state visit now faces a complication. In the aftermath of Trump’s refugee ban, May is facing calls to downgrade the visit to a non-state category. A British petition calling for that downgrade has 1.7 million signatures, and Parliament will debate the issue next month.
But let’s be clear. Downgrading or cancelling Trump’s visit would damage U.K. interests.
First off, a state visit is always more important than one issue and one leader. It’s about giving physicality to aspirations for a mutually beneficial future. And pertaining to U.K.-U.S. relations, a state visit is about the special relationship between the American and British people. It is a special relationship marked by the shared blood that our service personnel have spilled, and continue to spill, in defense of freedom. But whether in trade relations, cultural exchanges, or intelligence cooperation, the special relationship’s continuing worth is equally self-evident.
In that context, to cancel this state visit post-invitation would be a grave rejection of shared interests. I recognize that Trump’s ban is morally and strategically incompetent. But Trump is the president of the United States: the elected chief executive of the American government. For at least four years, he represents the American side of the special relationship.
Moreover, we can confidently assess what would happen were this invitation now withdrawn. For a start, the U.K. would irrevocably alienate President Trump. And for a president who takes great pride in his own pride, it is likely that Trump’s alienation would render into policy terms. For one, the potential of the free trade deal that post-Brexit Britain seeks would disappear. Trump might also react by reducing U.S. cooperation with the U.K. in fields such as military and intelligence cooperation. This would be catastrophic for the U.K. After all, British access to U.S. military technology and intelligence gives the U.K. vast benefits free of charge. Most concerning of all, Russian President Vladimir Putin would immediately jump to expand the new U.S.-U.K. friction. In that situation, the peace of Europe and broader international stability would suffer great fraying.
Finally, cancelling Trump’s state visit would subjugate U.K. government policy to the whims of populism. Theresa May’s credibility as a leader would be shattered. And those who oppose the British government would seek every opportunity to take advantage from its weakness. This bears relevance in relation to escalating challenges from unions and other far-left political groups.
Put simply, withdrawing Trump’s state visit would be an act of self-flagellating idiocy.
Tom Rogan (@TomRtweets) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is a foreign policy columnist for National Review, a domestic policy columnist for Opportunity Lives, a former panelist on The McLaughlin Group and a senior fellow at the Steamboat Institute.
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