Who has the edge going into the special Alabama Senate election on Tuesday? It depends. Just pick a poll.
A Fox News survey has Democrat Doug Jones up by 10 percentage points, 50 to 40 percent, while an Emerson University survey puts Republican Roy Moore ahead by 9 percentage points, 53 to 44 percent. Compared to the RealClearPolitics average, which had Moore up by 2.5 points before those polls, both are outliers and both will confirm the competing biases of each camp less than 24 hours before voting begins.
But the different conclusions assume radically different circumstances on Election Day and completely differing demographics at the ballot box.
The Fox News Poll
Pointing to depressed Republicans and energetic Democrats, Fox predicts a double-digit victory for Jones. Gathering national attention, the race has 50 percent of Democrats “extremely” interested in the outcome while just 45 percent of Republicans say the same. What’s more, the survey of 1,408 likely voters reports that Jones is the overwhelming choice of non-whites by 76 points.
Those numbers favor the Jones playbook. In the last few weeks, the Democrat has stumped hard in Birmingham and Montgomery to win the black vote. While Moore keeps his head down in the final stretch, Jones took up the pulpit at Progressive Union Missionary Church, kissed babies with Sen. Cory Booker, D-N.J., and recorded a robocall with former President Barack Obama.
“Moore might prevail if only the people who typically vote in Alabama elections turn out Tuesday, which is often what happens in special elections,” Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts the poll with Republican counterpart Daron Shaw, told Fox News.
“But this appears to be a special, special election with blacks and young voters animated by a caustic Republican candidate and the chance of winning a statewide election with national implications, and at the same time some Republicans and many moderates are turned off by Moore, too.”
If those voters come out in force Tuesday, if Alabama doesn’t look like itself, Jones wins.
The Emerson Poll
Relying on the state’s deep-red reputation and pointing to President Trump’s popularity, Emerson predicts a 9-point victory for Moore. The poll of 600 likely voters found that the former Alabama Supreme Court justice has regained ground lost after allegations surfaced that he had a thing for underage teen girls in the 1970s. Up by just 3 points last week, Moore has now surged to a 9-point lead.
That gives Moore reason to hope. With each new report about his past, the beleaguered Republican clings tighter and tighter to his endorsement from President Trump. Considering Trump won the state by almost 30 points, that seems like a smart move.
“What we’ve noticed is Moore’s favorability has really risen over the past three weeks,” said Spencer Kimball, the Emerson professor who authored the poll. “He took a real dive after the allegations came out around Veterans Day and slowly built himself up back up to 45-45 favorable/unfavorable opinion.”
“But most likely it is this Trump endorsement. Trump is very favorable in Alabama. He carries a 55-favorable rating right now and that’s lower where it has been over the past two months of polling this state. We know he carries some coattails. That’s most likely the reason Moore has been able to extend his lead up to 9.”
If the Trump endorsement drives voters to the polls, if it succeeds where it failed just recently for incumbent Sen. Luther Strange earlier this year, Moore wins.
Which should you believe?
When two polls vary by 19 percent, it’s probably not a good idea to call either one authoritative. There are at least two clear differences though.
First, the Fox pollsters called twice as many likely voters, 1408 to just 600. That increased sample size gives a broader, nuanced, and more accurate view. At the same time, the pollsters from Emerson University know Alabama. Their sample size is smaller, but they’re working in their own backyard.
Prediction: One of the polls will be more correct than the other.
