The course of human history, or four years of presidential politics at least, could be predicted, in part, by a root that tastes like a bitter carrot (stay with me).
American ginseng is a perennial herb with a root resembling a parsnip. It has dubious cold-fighting qualities and a loyal customer base in China.
Trade wars are protectionist relics capable of wrecking economies and subsequently ending political careers.
Shortly after President Trump unveiled tariffs on Chinese aluminum and steel, Beijing responded in kind with their own mercantile measures. Most market analysis focused on the bigger items effected like the 15 percent tariff levied on recycled aluminum and the 25 percent tariff imposed on pork. One of the less noticed U.S. exports to land on the hit list last week? American ginseng.
Originally native to the Appalachians and the Ozarks, wild ginseng has become a miniature cash crop. A pound of the stuff can cost anywhere from a hundred bucks to a couple thousand dollars on eBay. And almost all of it comes from one county in one state.
The Ginseng Board of Wisconsin estimates that exports of the root totaled 586,430 pounds, or about $20 million dollars, in 2016 (those numbers explain why cellphone giant Foxconn wants to cultivate relationships with ginseng growers). Over 40 percent of that crop was shipped off to China according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture and almost all of it, 90-95 percent according to different estimates, was grown in Marathon County.
That county is located about two hours west of Green Bay on U.S. Highway 10 and there isn’t much there. The population peaks north of 130,000. A civic minded bunch though, more than half made sure to vote in 2016. And that’s why Trump had better hope demand for ginseng is elastic.
If the Chinese buy the root regardless of the tariff, the 180 growers in Marathon won’t see their profits plummet. But if those same consumers turn to Canada or North Korea for their herbal needs, the two other countries known that grow ginseng, an economic depression could come to the little Wisconsin county and with it changing political preferences.
Trump won Wisconsin by about 23,000 votes. More than half of that support, 12,534 votes specifically, came from his margin in Marathon County, which regularly swings from red to blue and back during presidential years. Had he lost Marathon by the exact same amount, he would have lost Wisconsin.
Roughly 80,000 combined voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin handed him the victory. That makes Marathon County a decent indicator on Election Night.
Will an herb buried at the back of your spice cabinet spin the presidential election? Of course not. But if Trump loses voters over rising ginseng costs, it’s likely he will have already lost support over more significant tariffs on things like aluminum and pork. Watching the price of ginseng might not be a bad way to read 2020 tea-leaves.
