British Prime Minister Theresa May scored an important win Friday when she successfully negotiated a deal with the European Union on three important issues.
First, Britons currently living in the EU and EU citizens currently living in Britain will be able to continue doing so. This had been in doubt in the context of hardline-Brexit adherents in the U.K. who want to restrict EU migration into British territory.
Second, the U.K. government will pay between $47 and $52 billion to settle outstanding commitments to the EU’s budget. This might seem like a lot, but it’s about $15 billion less than I had expected the number to end up being.
Third, the basic arrangement of the current border between British territory in Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland will remain effectively the same. While May’s coalition partner in Northern Ireland, the DUP party, is not exactly happy with the arrangement, the prime minister seems to have done enough to find a compromise between them and the EU.
This accounts for a big win for May.
The Prime Minister has shown she is capable of playing hardball with the EU and coming out with a strong result. On each of the aforementioned issues, the EU had sought far greater concessions from Britain. That she did not buckle under the pressure is a good omen as the negotiations now consider trade-related concerns. Those issues, of course, will define whether Britain can expect near-term prosperity or a recession.
Yet it would be a mistake to judge this as a defining victory. There remain serious differences between British post-Brexit aspirations and the EU’s expectations. At the same time, as EU member states deliberate on their own national interests as applied to Brexit, it will be difficult to ensure that all parties are satisfied.
That said, Britain must not get cold feet. From security issues to its net-imports from top EU nations like Germany, the British government has ace cards in its pocket. Moreover, on the merits of sovereign democracy, Brexit remains Britain’s rightful destination.
The coming years won’t always be easy, but at least we now know that May is up to the job.
