Mexicans, mistrusting endemic political corruption, ego, and waste, may think that President-elect Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s decision to scrap his security detail makes sense. But in fact, it is idiotic.
So is Lopez Obrador’s plan to have his security handled by twenty nonsecurity professionals. These 10 men and 10 women will apparently be selected from his supporters and given some limited training. They will then take the place of the professionals who currently provide for the Mexican president’s security.
Don’t get me wrong, this is a smart public relations move from Lopez Obrador, who will become president on Dec. 1. Running for election on an anti-corruption platform of fiscal responsibility, Lopez Obrador appealed to the millions of voters who have lost faith in their notoriously corrupt political class. And in a country where kidnappings and assassinations are rife, bodyguards have become synonymous with an elite out-of-touch class of citizens. Put simply, those who can afford bodyguards are seen as those who afford not to care about those who cannot afford protection. Lopez Obrador doesn’t want to join that perceived club of elites.
Nor would it be fair to blame Lopez Obrador as being the first democratic leader who has attempted a PR stunt like this. On becoming British Prime Minister in 2010, for example, David Cameron abandoned his police escort outriders (he changed course after being briefed on the security need for those officers).
Yet, Lopez Obrador is no longer just a citizen, and with his new office comes the responsibility both to lead with integrity, but also to survive. Lopez Obrador was elected because Mexicans believe he was the best candidate for the job. They didn’t elect him just so that he could be assassinated by the first psychopath or street thug he comes across. And how would the nation react if something did happen to him?
That concern is no small one. Mexico has never had a president assassinated, but its president-elect was assassinated in 1928, and a leading presidential candidate was assassinated in 1994. So the threat is real. Hundreds of lower-level officials and candidates have been assassinated in recent years at the hands of various cartels jockeying for control over the drug export market. Presidents are not excluded here: former President Felipe Calderon faced numerous significant threats while in office.
What of the argument that the cartels would hurt their own interests by killing Lopez Obrador?
Well, although Lopez Obrador has followed his predecessor’s early language in taking a conciliatory tone toward the cartels, his presidency will inevitably aggravate the cartels at some point. Indeed, El Financiero reports that Lopez Obrador will establish a border patrol force to obstruct the cartels’ drugs smuggling into Mexico through Belize and Guatemala. If that force is competent and relatively noncorrupt it will infuriate the cartels and Lopez Obrador’s threat profile.
Now, in normal scenarios such a threat could be managed by Mexico’s elite presidential security guard, the EMP. That organization under the Mexican military has developed high-competency capabilities in intelligence, technical, and close-human protective fields. In these capabilities, the EMP is better than many similar agencies in other top U.S. allies. Unfortunately, Lopez Obrador intends to disband the EMP and role its forces back into other military units. He will thus remove his means of security even if he later changes his mind.
Such stupidity represents an absurd neglect of duty. And it gets worse. Because seeing as Mexico’s order of succession for presidential incapacity is lethargic in speed and convoluted in process, Lopez Obrador’s abrupt inability to serve would leave the nation without effective leadership. What if such an incident occurred during a war, natural disaster, or other crisis?
The president-elect has time to re-think his decision here. He should do so without delay.
