Republicans need a net gain of just one seat to control the U.S. Senate next year. If they win back control of the Senate this November, it probably won’t have anything to do with the race in New Hampshire.
A recent poll shows that Don Bolduc has a strong lead in the Republican primary. Bolduc had 32% support in a St. Anselm College Survey Center poll released earlier this week. He has double the support of the next closest competitor in the race, state Senate President Chuck Morse (16%). The other three candidates were in the low single digits.
For incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan, this is good news.
New Hampshire leans Democratic nationally. It has voted for the Democrat in the past five presidential elections, President Joe Biden won the state by more than 7 points in 2020, and all four members of its congressional delegation are Democrats.
Yet, Republicans who focus on New Hampshire politics can do well in the state. New Hampshire has a Republican trifecta: The GOP controls the governorship, the House of Representatives, and the Senate.
While New Hampshire voters supported Republican Gov. Chris Sununu, Bolduc is no Sununu. Bolduc is a weak candidate. He has called Sununu a Communist Chinese sympathizer and falsely claimed that the 2020 presidential election was rigged.
Running as a Trump apologist after former President Donald Trump lost New Hampshire twice is a bad idea. And Bolduc has made things worse by touting endorsements from state representatives who support secession. Earlier this year, 13 members of the New Hampshire House of Representatives voted in favor of offering New Hampshire voters a secession referendum. Six of those 13 representatives have publicly endorsed Bolduc, according to the endorsements posted on his campaign website.
It won’t be hard for Hassan to make the case against her opponent if Bolduc is the nominee. He is embracing lies about the election and support from secessionists. How will that look to the average person in this fiscally conservative, socially liberal state?
Plus, Bolduc is a poor fundraiser. He raised $85,000 in the second quarter this year; Hassan raised more than $5 million in that stretch. And given that Hassan recently voted for corporate welfare for green energy and semiconductor manufacturers, big donors may also open their wallets for her in the third quarter.
Election forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball doesn’t see Hassan’s seat flipping, either. It lists New Hampshire as leaning Democratic for the U.S. Senate this November. If Bolduc is the nominee, it’s an even safer Democratic seat.
Tom Joyce (@TomJoyceSports) is a political reporter for the New Boston Post in Massachusetts.
