Stop saying 13 million people will lose coverage if the individual mandate is repealed

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Now that Senate Republicans have formally decided to add repeal of Obamacare’s individual mandate penalties to the tax bill, we’re going to be hearing a lot more about the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate that 13 million more Americans would be uninsured. But it’s important to keep in mind that this doesn’t mean that all 13 million will lose coverage.

The 13 million cited by the CBO fit into several different categories. Among them are 5 million Medicaid beneficiaries and 2 million workers who would decline offers of employer coverage. Because repealing mandate penalties would not change Medicaid eligibility, meaning that anybody who didn’t sign up would still qualify, and could be signed up if they ever needed medical care. Similarly, repealing the mandate penalties would not mean that those employees would lose their offer of coverage. So, right off the bat, at least 7 million of the 13 million would not really be losing any coverage.

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