It was a clinic. Even as the Republican Obamacare replacement was being roundly condemned by conservatives and liberals alike, Paul Ryan was predicting victory. “We’ll have 218 when this thing comes to the floor,” Ryan promised a gaggle of skeptical reporters. “I can guarantee you that.” But of course, he can’t.
Clearly projecting, Ryan assumed that the Republican conference will crumple before the White House just as quickly as he has bent to the president’s will. Specifically, Ryan must expect Trump to secure his right flank. So far, there’s no indication that will happen.
Even after the administration put its shoulder behind the plan, House conservatives were speaking openly against it Wednesday morning. In a CNN interview, Rep. Justin Amash said he feels “very comfortable voting against the bill.” Asked about the consequences of bucking the party line, a grinning Amash said a “no” vote “is not going to cost me my seat.”
Though characteristic of the cantankerous libertarian ideologue, the answer should put Ryan’s whip team on notice. Amash is from a deep-red district that Democrats haven’t carried in two decades. Trump won it easily by more than 10 points. Still, Amash isn’t afraid to cross the White House.
Even the Trump-friendly Freedom Caucus hasn’t warmed up to the plan. While many of those roughly 40 members climbed onstage with Trump during the campaign, they haven’t gotten onboard with his healthcare reform. That shouldn’t be surprising though.
After all, opposition to Obamacare fueled most of their congressional campaigns. Think right-wing guys like Mark Meadows of North Carolina and Mo Brooks of Arizona. They’re watching their grassroots catch fire back home. After promising full repeal for six years, those members won’t accept the current replacement package without serious concessions.
That’s not wishful thinking, it’s a logical conclusion. Though blinded by his love for the president, even Newt Gingrich doesn’t think Ryan and Trump can overcome that opposition. Earlier today the former House Speaker told a healthcare convention that “there are slightly more ‘absolutely noes’ than you can afford to have.” The margin of error is large.
At the exact moment Ryan needs to present a unified front, his conference is pulling itself apart. If just 21 of the 241 Republicans in Congress feel like Amash, the current package will fall apart. Unless Republicans reformat the bill to take an axe to Obamacare, it will fail. Right now any other conclusion seems like wishful thinking.
Philip Wegmann is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
