NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C. — Yes, South Carolina Republicans do like George W. Bush. When the former president showed up at the North Charleston Coliseum Monday night on behalf of brother Jeb’s struggling campaign, the result was easily the largest crowd Jeb has drawn in South Carolina. Most reporters guessed it was north of 1,000; the campaign said it was 3,000. In any event, it was big.
Nobody onstage said Donald Trump’s name. But the Republican presidential front-runner and Jeb Bush torturer cast a shadow over the event just the same.
“I understand that Americans are angry and frustrated,” W told the crowd. “But we do not need someone in the Oval Office who mirrors and inflames our anger and frustration.”
“It seems like Americans are yearning for a strong leader,” W continued. “In my experience, the strongest person usually isn’t the loudest one in the room.”
For his part, Jeb brought up Saturday’s debate, which of course meant Trump. “It was kind of weird, parts of it,” Jeb said. “I never thought in a Republican debate we’d be talking about impeaching a Republican two-term president … I thought it was Michael Moore on the stage.”
“In any case,” Jeb added, “this is not about the front-running candidate.” But in fact, much of it was.
Trump was more than an off-stage presence. His brutal critique of Jeb and W served to frame a good deal of what both the candidate and the former president had to say. Yes, of course they would have talked about “keeping us safe” in any event, but they probably talked about it more after Trump’s attacks. Yes, of course they would have talked about Jeb’s steadiness and experience, but after Trump they probably talked about it a little more.
Beyond that, the issues Trump has raised about both Bushes revealed something about the complex feelings South Carolina Republicans have for George W. Bush, and whether their affection for him transfers, or doesn’t, to his brother.
First, a note on this story: It won’t contain any names of voters or direct quotations from them. Shortly after I arrived and walked into the crowd, a Bush press person told me I would have to stay within the confines of a fenced-off press pen, behind the camera platform. That would severely limit any interactions with voters. The Bush people — I appealed it another step up the chain of command — explained that there were “rules and regulations” because of W’s presence. But they didn’t actually escort me to the press pen, so I took off my credentials, put my notebook and digital recorder in my pocket, and went back into the crowd. As it turned out, I was free to roam for quite a while and managed to talk to 41 attendees in all, using my iPhone to jot down a few notes. Then the Bush people returned, and this time made sure I went behind the barrier.
In the interviews, I kept it pretty short. I asked people whether they had decided who to vote for yet. And I asked whether, looking back, they thought the Iraq War was a mistake, or, as Trump said, a big fat mistake.
On the vote question, many people told me they were still trying to decide. Most said their decision has come down to Ted Cruz, or Marco Rubio, or Jeb. Several mentioned John Kasich as an outside possibility. Almost no one mentioned Trump.
But they weren’t solidly for Jeb, either. Out of the 41 people I talked to, only four said they had absolutely decided to vote for Jeb. It’s not unusual for people at one candidate’s event to be still shopping, or leaning toward another candidate. But Jeb would likely hope for more than ten percent of his own crowd.
But of course, it wasn’t really his crowd. South Carolina state Sen. Katrina Shealy, a Jeb endorser, gave away the game when she took the stage to start the night’s speeches, beginning with a rousing “Are y’all ready to see the president?” She wasn’t talking about Jeb.
Nearly everyone expressed deep admiration for W. But that admiration did not mean blanket approval of his actions as president. So when I asked whether, looking back, going to war in Iraq was a mistake, here is what I got. Seventeen said yes, it was a mistake. Seventeen said no, it was not a mistake. And seven said some variation of, “It’s complicated.”
Many of those who said the war was a mistake took care to add that they thought W did the best he could with the information he had at the time. Many of those who said it wasn’t a mistake said they don’t necessarily approve of it today, as they look back, but they don’t want to apply 20/20 hindsight and criticize a decision made at a different time. Some blamed today’s mess on Barack Obama. In other words, no matter what they said, they were inclined to cut W some slack.
Some of the “It’s complicated” people seemed truly torn by the question. In the end, I came away with the impression that most of them didn’t really disagree with each other very much. Some of them leaned a little more to the “mistake” side than others, but none of them were in a mood to blame the former president sitting on the stage.
Still, they weren’t with Jeb. If anything, the combination of the huge enthusiasm for W and the relatively small number of people who said they have definitely decided to vote for Jeb suggests that the affection just doesn’t transfer. (One person told me she’d definitely be for Jeb if his poll numbers were higher and she thought he had a chance, which is the same thing a woman at a Rubio rally told me a day earlier.)
After the speeches, as I was leaving, a woman stopped me to talk. I didn’t include her in my earlier numbers because I didn’t have a chance to cover all the questions, but I did ask if she had decided who she’d vote for. She said Jeb, absolutely. Why Jeb over the other guys? “I’ve voted for Bushes forever,” she said.
South Carolina Republicans place a lot of value on loyalty. Many have supported the Bush family over the years, and they’ll always feel warmly toward any candidate named Bush. But their feelings about Jeb just don’t rise to the level of their devotion to W. It’s hard to imagine that changing in the few days left before the South Carolina primary.
