DENVER, Colo. — Nobody expects Republican Rep. Cory Gardner to win the Hispanic vote in the Colorado Senate race against incumbent Democrat Mark Udall. Yes, there was a Denver Post poll that showed Gardner ahead among Latinos, but it has been widely dismissed, including within the Gardner camp. But Republicans have done so badly with Hispanic voters in recent years that if Gardner could simply do better — not win, just do better — overall victory could be within reach. Gardner appears poised to do just that.
But Gardner still has to deal with Democrats who would make support for the Senate Gang of Eight comprehensive immigration reform bill the price of admission in any contest for Hispanic voters. Gardner’s challenge was on full display at a recent forum he and Udall attended, sponsored by the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce of Metro Denver.
The event, held in a side building on the grounds of the governor’s mansion, was billed as an opportunity for Latino business leaders to network, exchange ideas and to hear Gardner’s and Udall’s views on immigration, education and job creation. For Gardner, though, it was more of setup; as a House GOP lawmaker, he was cast as the villain standing in the way of comprehensive immigration reform.
As Gardner stood nearby, smiling politely, two powerful Colorado Democrats, Rep. Diana DeGette and Sen. Michael Bennet, accused House Republicans, whose ranks of course include Gardner, of denying the people’s will by not supporting immediate House passage of the Gang of Eight measure, which cleared the Senate in the summer of 2013.
“We had Republican allies,” DeGette said of her efforts to pass the Gang of Eight in the House. “Sadly, none of them were from the state of Colorado.” No one in the room missed the reference to Gardner. But just in case anyone did, DeGette added, “What has to happen is the business community has got to stop giving the Republican members of our delegation, and around the country, a pass on immigration reform.”
For his part, Bennet urged everyone to support President Obama’s expected executive action to legalize millions of currently illegal immigrants, a move he described as a “lawful administrative action to keep families together.” Like DeGette, Bennet did not call out Gardner by name, but said, with what sounded like a touch of anger in his voice, “Stop the excuse-making, and help us pass comprehensive immigration reform.”
The Bennet and DeGette tough-talking act gave Udall the opportunity to deliver a lower-key message. “Michael laid it out, didn’t he?” Udall said upon taking the microphone. “He laid it out beautifully.” But Udall’s agenda for immigration was basically to join his colleagues in urging House passage of the Gang of Eight.
All the Gang of Eight talk put Gardner in a difficult position when his time to speak finally arrived. That was the intention. But as it turned out, what Gardner said showed why he could be on the verge of performing well enough with Latino voters to win on Nov. 4.
Gardner did several things right. First, he showed up. Second, he treated everyone with respect, beginning with “I would be honored to earn your support and your vote.” Third, he spoke with good humor and a positive demeanor, compared to the anger and frustration of DeGette and Bennet. Fourth, he handled the immigration issue on his own terms, not the terms set by Democrats. And fifth, he spent the bulk of his time on economic issues, on questions of income and jobs that are the top concerns of Hispanic voters, as they are with all other voters in Colorado.
On immigration, Gardner expressed support for the series of step-by-step measures favored by many House Republicans. He said that focusing only on border security, as some GOP voters want, is not enough to fix the nation’s immigration problem. “Border security is not complete without things like guest worker programs,” Gardner said. He also advocated an improved visa system. Overall, the measures Gardner supports add up to something that can legitimately be called “immigration reform” — just not the specific measure, the Gang of Eight, that Democrats want to make the single standard of reform.
But immigration wasn’t a big part of what Gardner had to say, and he soon moved on to economic topics. “We live in a nation where big businesses started in small garages, but right now we have a government that wants to tax out of business, and regulate out of business, that small garage,” Gardner said, noting the Hispanics start a lot of small businesses in Colorado. Eliminating burdensome regulations helps Hispanic businesspeople just like it helps other businesspeople. Gardner also pushed an idea he has promoted in Congress, the small business savings account, that would allow would-be entrepreneurs’ savings to grow untaxed if the money was then put into starting a new business.
Gardner talked about the oil and gas industry that is growing exponentially in Colorado. “We have to move forward on responsible energy opportunities,” Gardner said. “When projects like the Keystone XL pipeline are stopped, blocked, delayed, who does it hurt the most? Does it hurt the rich? Does it hurt the oil company? It hurts the people who can least afford it, people who are looking for jobs that pay better than minimum wage — jobs that pay $20 an hour, $30 an hour. People who are looking for work — those are the kinds of opportunities that we can pursue together.”
Gardner didn’t say those are Hispanic jobs. They are Colorado jobs, for all Coloradoans. After touching on a few more topics — an expanded earned income tax credit, school choice — Gardner concluded his brief remarks.
The message Gardner delivered to the Hispanic Chamber was, in short, much like the message he has delivered to everyone else around Colorado. And that one-agenda-for-everybody appeal could be the secret to improved Republican prospects with Hispanic voters in this, the one state with a contested Senate race which also has a substantial Hispanic population; no matter what Democrats say, the race is not just about, or even primarily about, immigration reform.
“That’s not the biggest issue worrying this community — it’s their jobs,” said Tony Sanchez, a Republican candidate for the Colorado State Senate who attended an event with Gardner the next day. “I heard one person say, ‘I don’t want immigration to define who we are. We’ve got to feed families. If you don’t have your economic freedom, what can you do?”
There’s no doubt Gardner has to do better with Hispanic voters than Republicans have in the last few years. In 2008, Barack Obama won 61 percent of the Hispanic vote in Colorado, to John McCain’s 38 percent. In 2010, Bennet won 81 percent of the Hispanic vote, to Republican challenger Ken Buck’s 19 percent. And in 2012, Obama won 75 percent of the Latino vote to Mitt Romney’s 23 percent.
“I think he’ll get in the 30s,” said a well-connected GOP strategist of Gardner’s prospects. “McCain’s number would be great.” Given Gardner’s performance in other areas of the electorate, matching McCain’s 38 percent of Hispanic voters would probably mean victory.
I asked Gardner about some of those issues the morning after the Hispanic Chamber event, as we rode between visits to campaign offices in suburban Denver. He wasn’t rattled by what had happened. “A lot of people came up to me and said they’re voting for me,” Gardner said. He had nothing but good to say about the organization. “The Hispanic Chamber is a great group,” he told me. “Diedra [Garcia, the group’s president] is a fantastic leader.”
Gardner said most Hispanic leaders know he supports immigration reform — not specifically the Gang of Eight, but immigration reform — and that Democrats are “grasping at straws” to suggest he doesn’t. Perhaps his bigger job, he suggested, is not convincing supporters of reform but explaining his position to Republicans who want to do little on immigration beyond securing the border:
I asked Gardner to predict how well he will do with Hispanic voters. “I think we’re going to do better than people think,” he said. “We continue to reach into the communities.” Aides passed on a list of events Gardner has attended to suggest he is indeed in touch with Latino voters.
But Gardner’s message has been built around the economy, not a specific Hispanic interest-group appeal. “Cory’s message has been very economy-focused,” added the GOP strategist. “His message has been built from the beginning to appeal to everybody, and that is why he has had success so far in the Latino community … In the end, the economy is what is driving that vote, and Cory has talked a lot more about the economy in this campaign than Mark Udall has.”
Of course, none of that will stop Democrats from pressing Gardner on the Gang of Eight. Before the Hispanic Chamber event, the group’s president, Diedra Garcia, told me she supported the Gang of Eight bill — she said it was a “reasonable compromise” and she was “concerned about its lack of progress in the House.” Garcia said she hoped to hear Gardner address some of her concerns during his remarks.
After the event, I sent an email to Garcia asking whether she had heard the answers she wanted to hear from Gardner. “Ummmm … no, I did not, unfortunately,” Garcia answered. “I am going to call him this week and see if I can get his answer. I felt the Democratic delegation almost issued a challenge to them …”
Yes, Democrats have issued a challenge to Gardner. But Gardner has issued a challenge back, in the form of a question. Are Hispanics single-issue voters on the Gang of Eight immigration bill — not even the larger question of immigration reform, but specifically the Gang of Eight — as Democrats appear to believe, or are they motivated by the same range of concerns as their fellow Coloradoans? Gardner’s chances on Nov. 4 will depend on the answer.
