The well-sourced Barak Ravid reports that Israel, in the past two weeks, has briefed the United States and its European partners on intelligence that indicates Iran may begin enriching its uranium stockpile to 90% “weapons-grade” purity.
The Iran nuclear accord has been dormant-to-dead since Donald Trump withdrew the U.S. in 2018. Iran then began systematically breaching its commitments to the remaining parties (Britain, France, Germany, the European Union, China, and Russia). President Joe Biden wants to restore the agreement, and negotiations to that effect belatedly began in Vienna on Monday.
Any Iranian escalation to weapons-grade enrichment would have to be authorized by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But economic pressures inside Iran are now critical, limiting the regime’s ability even to pay off its most loyal supporters and fueling political instability. Khamenei wants economic relief that only the West can provide, but without providing much in return. He might see enrichment to 90% purity as a means to play hardball in that pursuit.
What would follow if Iran took that action?
First, within a matter of weeks, Iran could produce sufficient weapons-grade material for a nuclear weapon. That wouldn’t immediately mean Iran’s arrival as a nuclear weapons power.
Although much would depend on the scale and success of Iran’s nuclear warhead development and external interference against said testing, Iran would need one to three years to deploy a deliverable weapon. While Iran’s ballistic missile program has developed significantly in recent years, its warhead weaponization and reentry vehicle research have been limited.
Still, any shift to weapons-grade enrichment would force the Biden administration and the nuclear agreement’s signatories into a very difficult choice. Namely, whether to accept Iran’s escalation or respond in kind.
It’s difficult to predict, but I would venture that China, the EU, Germany, and Russia would resist the application of new sanctions on Iran. On the flip side, Britain (Prime Minister Boris Johnson has adopted a more pro-Israel policy), France (concerned about nuclear proliferation in the Middle East), and the U.S. would likely push to restrict Iran’s energy exports and access to international financial markets further. Iran’s ensuing action would likely shape Israel’s response.
At this point, were Iran to continue its weapons-grade enrichment and simultaneous weaponization, Israel would face its own grave choice.
Israel’s stakes here could scarcely be greater. The Islamic Republic of Iran embraces Israel-focused antisemitism as part of its theological raison d’etre. An Iranian general reaffirmed the hard-liners’ messianic mission on Saturday, declaring that “we will not back off from the annihilation of Israel, even one millimeter. We want to destroy Zionism in the world.”
To Israel, a nuclear-armed Iran is thus the precusor to a second Holocaust. Except that where the Nazis needed four years to kill 6 million Jews, a nuclear Iran might need only four minutes to do the same. What would Prime Minister Naftali Bennett do?
We don’t know. But Bennett is widely regarded to be less risk averse than his predecessor Benjamin Netanyahu.
Israel’s military options are limited, however.
Israel has an extraordinary intelligence network inside Iran, including fixed physical and digital hacking tools, sources across the Iranian government and security forces, and other capabilities. But to effectively destroy Iran’s nuclear program, Israel would need active U.S. military support. To degrade Iran’s nuclear program effectively for a period of years, Israel would need the GBU-57 massive ordnance penetrator bomb, or the GBU-72 bunker buster. Although far better positioned to target Iran’s hardened nuclear facilities, the GBU-72 is still in testing. The U.S. would also be reluctant to share the GBU-72 with Israel out of fear that its design might leak to China.
Would Iran eventually back down? Would Biden, Johnson, and President Emmanuel Macron join Israeli military strikes? Would Israel act alone, believing that a low probability of success was preferable to any risk of a second Holocaust?
Put simply, the next few months bear very significant ramifications for the world.
