MANCHESTER, N.H. — The headline of the latest polls is pretty simple: Donald Trump leads, by a lot, in every recent poll. He posts somewhere between 28-34 percent in the six latest polls. His closest challenger is somewhere between 13-17 percent in all latest polls.
Here’s the key thing: There’s no telling from the polls who will finish second. Rubio, Cruz and Kasich all post in second place in recent polls, while Kasich and Cruz show up in 4th place in one poll, and Rubio is tied for third in one poll.
Trump’s Lead
Donald Trump’s smallest lead is 13 points — that’s in the Gravis poll, which is the most recent, largest sample-size poll. This lead is well beyond the margin of error and any turnout factor. In short, it would take an unprecedented poll error for Trump to lose New Hampshire.
Second Place
Rubio surrogate Darrell Issa said today on New Hampshire radio that a strong second-place finish is their goal. None of the polls conducted entirely after Saturday night’s debate show Rubio in clear second place. If you dig into the numbers of second-choices and loosely-attached voters, there’s a lot of movement between Rubio and Kasich. If Rubio’s Saturday debate was the catastrophe many pundits say it was, Kasich could easily sweep up the thousands of establishment Republicans who are up for grabs, and come in second.
While Rubio and Kasich fight over the establishment lane, Cruz has his own line to second place. First, his turnout machinery in Iowa carried him to victory. If he has a comparable operation in New Hampshire, he’ll finish second.
Also, if the establishment lane is divided among Bush, Kasich,and Rubio — as it looks right now — Cruz could win the silver with 15 or 16 percent.
Drop outs?
New Hampshire has a 10 percent viability threshold for winning delegates. If you get 9.9 percent of the vote, you get zero national delegates from New Hampshire.
Tough-talking Chris Christie looks like he won’t hit double-digits. Jeb Bush is on the borderline. Carly Fiorina is way down. So is Ben Carson.
Cruz and Rubio both have a win and a quasi-win in their respective belts.
So, who will give up running for president for Lent?
Barring the unexpected, Bush, Christie and Fiorina will drop out of the race. Carson probably should. If Kasich underperforms he may, too.
In other words, after Tuesday, the race will be among Trump, Rubio and Cruz, with Kasich and Bush the maybes.
Could Trump Lose?
Posit that Gravis is the most correct poll (not a bad position). It’s hard to see Kasich making up that 11-point deficit or Cruz gaining 17 points.
Timothy P. Carney, The Washington Examiner’s senior political columnist, can be contacted at [email protected]. His column appears Tuesday and Thursday nights on washingtonexaminer.com.
