“Primary election season is still young, but the liberal wing of the Democratic Party is already celebrating,” reported the Associated Press on Thursday. “Democratic primary voters have chosen decidedly liberal candidates in several closely watched congressional primary elections, a sign that the left is driving much of Democrats’ enthusiasm and may be winning the tug of war with moderates over the direction of the party.”
There’s some dispute as to whether this primary season has definitively proven progressives the winners of that tug of war, though that theory seems to have plenty of supporters. But there’s no question they’ve come out on top in some key races, and primary voters’ preference for progressives could have unintended consequences.
In the same way Trump-style Republicans hope their alignment will rally the base to turn out on election day, Bernie-style Democrats expect the same, assuming their ideological fervor will inspire more people to get out and cast Democratic ballots than they otherwise would. But some research suggests that strategy may actually be counterproductive.
Stanford researchers Andrew Hall and Daniel Thompson published a survey of election data last year that found “when the more extreme candidate won the primary, the party did far worse in the general election,” per the Washington Post’s report, because “when an extreme candidate is nominated, voters from the other party show up to vote at a higher rate.”
So, the motivating impact an “extreme” candidate has on their own party is counterbalanced by the greater motivating impact it has on the other party. (This does, of course, depend on how one defines “extremism.”)
Take Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional District, for example, where the likely Democratic nominee, viral ironworker Randy Bryce, supports so-called “Medicare-for-all,” a $15 minimum wage, and abolishing the agency that does immigration enforcement. The district is probably more competitive for Republicans than House Speaker Paul Ryan’s record of big wins suggests, but you can see how Republican-leaners would be more motivated to get to the polls by the threat Bryce’s platform poses, than progressives would be to support him.
In most competitive districts, progressives and persuadable independents are probably outnumbered to begin with. That goes the other way around as well.
To capitalize on an enthusiasm gap, then, the key for Democrats in 2018 would be to nominate candidates who aren’t so far to the Left, they increase Republican enthusiasm more than Democratic enthusiasm.
