This weekend will be crucial for Hong Kong’s future. Unfortunately, I believe it will also be the weekend that finally persuades Beijing to use military force in crushing the protest movement.
The key here is that Beijing now recognizes the protesters will not accept the meager scraps of concessions it offers. Hong Kong Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s decision this week to withdraw the extradition bill has failed to cool the protesters’ anger. Those protesters rightly recognize that Lam is simply acting under orders from Beijing. They know that without structural political change to insulate the territory from Beijing’s grip, any commitment is easily reversible. This is no small concern dealing with the Communist Party of China, especially with Xi Jinping sitting atop the throne as a second Mao.
So if Beijing knows the protesters won’t back down, but is unwilling to make more political reforms, where are we?
Facing a crunch point this weekend.
Last weekend saw a return to violence after two weeks of relative peace. That reflects a protest movement emboldened by Beijing’s inability to crush it, and enraged by the temporary detention of its leaders. While courageous, and supported by moral cause, I think the protesters’ confidence deludes them into overestimating their capabilities.
Yes, Beijing is deeply uncomfortable with sending its military into the streets. It knows doing so will invite international condemnation and perhaps delay much-needed trade talks with America. But the Politburo Standing Committee, the party’s highest body, is far more uncomfortable with letting the disorder continue, because Hong Kong’s street battles risk the Communist Party’s very credibility. That’s what matters most to Beijing: the ensured and understood supremacy of the state.
This sits at the heart of Xi’s vision for consolidation at home and greatly expanded Chinese power abroad. To accept Hong Kong’s continuing chaos is to accept a grave risk to the project, the party, and the Chinese state itself. This concern is especially timely with the 70th anniversary of the People’s Republic of China coming on Oct. 1. Xi has big military parade plans for that day and doesn’t want Hong Kong riots overshadowing his message of destined glory.
Nor is it as if military preparations for a Hong Kong operation aren’t underway. Significant numbers of People’s Liberation Army’s military police are stationed on Hong Kong’s outskirts. Chinese Ministry of State Security intelligence officers have also saturated Hong Kong proper. They are engaged in escalating harassment operations of various degrees.
All of this leads me to believe that violent protests this weekend will precipitate a near-term Chinese military operation. Beijing will endure the ensuing criticism, believing they have no other option but to use force to end its crisis once and for all.
