Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal often gets lost in the shuffle among the crowded 2016 Republican presidential field, but those who dismiss his chances out of hand are making a mistake.
No doubt, the reasons for skepticism about Jindal’s presidential prospects are numerous and legitimate.
As of now, Jindal barely registers in polls of Republican contenders, typically polling at about 1 percent — or less than the margin of error. His largest exposure to a national audience was his awkward speech in 2009 responding to President Obama’s first address to a joint session of Congress.
Jindal isn’t even popular in his heavily Republican home state, where his approval rating has plummeted to as low as 27 percent in one poll. Currently, the state is grappling with a $1.6 billion budget hole. There are genuine reasons to doubt his chances in a general election.
In short, it’s easy to see why people are betting against Jindal. At the same time, it’s important to remember that voters in party nominating contests can be fickle, rallying around candidates for a short period of time, only to chew them up and spit them out before moving on to somebody else.
In 2012, at various points, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and even Herman Cain enjoyed surges. In the previous presidential election cycle, Rudy Giuliani spent much of 2007 as the clear leader in national polls.
There are key differences between previous election cycles and the current one — the biggest being how many candidates can credibly claim to be full-spectrum conservatives. But it’s inevitable that at some point those currently seen as frontrunners could falter.
For all the talk about Jeb Bush’s fundraising prowess, network, name recognition, experience and policy chops, he’s still bunched up with other leading candidates in polls.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker had been in the low-to-mid single digits in polls, before surging to the top of the pack after one well-received speech in Iowa, and he’s lately been losing some steam. Sen. Marco Rubio has recently risen after a strong campaign launch.
It’s easy to see a scenario under which voters at some point have doubts about all of these leading candidates.
Voters who are yearning for change may not be able to move past Jeb’s last name and could prefer somebody more conservative. Walker may prove that even with more time to receive policy briefings that he just isn’t up to the task of talking fluently and coherently on national and international issues. Rubio may not withstand the deeper scrutiny that comes with being a top-tier presidential candidate, and after two terms of Obama, voters may decide they want somebody with executive experience rather than another one-term senator.
As all of this happens, Jindal will be floating out there, assuming he runs. In a forum sponsored by the Washington Examiner on Thursday, he told me that he would make his final decision after the current legislative session in Louisiana, which ends on June 11.
Should he enter, Jindal would offer a blend of experience serving in Congress and running a state. He’s somebody who can certainly be acceptable to economic, social and national security conservatives. He can enter the race on day one with a deep and detailed understanding of policy and has the potential to excel in all of the debates.
Through his policy group America Next, he has already unveiled detailed proposals on education, defense, energy and healthcare. On the latter issue, where he has the most experience, he has challenged other candidates to move beyond repealing Obamacare and offer genuine policy alternatives.
To be clear, this isn’t to say Jindal will be the nominee. Just that, if voters go through a period of the race where they have reservations about those currently considered to be in the top tier, they may ask, “Why not Jindal?” That will put him in the spotlight, and provide him with a chance to shine.
Whether he’s able to make the sale at that point is much more difficult to project. But one thing that he should do is avoid trying to be somebody he’s not — which brings us to another question about his candidacy.
Jindal has disappointed many conservatives who care about policy, because in his efforts to shed his image as a boring nerdy policy guy, he’s grown a habit of seeking cheap applause lines and throwing out red meat to audiences. But there are plenty of other candidates in the race who can satisfy the appetites of the most voracious of carnivores.
It’s quite possible that Jindal doesn’t have a path to the nomination at this point. But if he does have any conceivable path, it isn’t by delivering the best one-liners. It’s by playing the role that he’s most comfortable with — being a steady and consistent voice for a detailed, positive, conservative policy vision.
