With Jeb Bush slated to announce his presidential campaign June 15, it’s worth asking why the fundraising juggernaut is just doing okay in the polls.
The former Florida governor is leading or tied for the lead in two of the last three national polls just a point down in a third. A somewhat earlier poll also has Bush in a five-way tie for the lead.
But in those four polls, Bush is getting 12, 13, 10 and 10 percent of the vote. You have to go back to April to find him breaking 20 percent nationally. In June 1999, a Washington Post poll found George W. Bush taking 49 percent of the vote, beating second-place Elizabeth Dole by 29 points.
Lest you chalk that up to a weak field, consider that the candidates tested in that poll included not only the wife of the 1996 Republican nominee but also Dan Quayle, then the most recent Republican vice president of the United States; Pat Buchanan, the defending New Hampshire primary winner; and John McCain, who would go on to win the nomination in 2008.
At a similar point in the 2016 campaign, when Jeb Bush should be able to count on his family name recognition the most, he is struggling to stay ahead of Rand Paul, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and Mike Huckabee.
Anecdotally, I meet two different kinds of Republicans who say they won’t vote for Jeb Bush. The first has a list of grievances with Bush on policy grounds, usually including immigration, Common Core and the tax pledge, and frequently tacking on complaints about his brother’s record on spending.
The second group, however, may be more persuadable. They basically like Jeb, would probably give serious thought to voting for him if his last name was Smith, but either dislike the whole Bush dynasty idea themselves or think enough voters will reject it to cost Republicans the election.
It’s this group that Bush is going to have to win over to shake up the GOP presidential race. I argued in my column warning against Bush nostalgia that these skeptics are correct, but maybe Jeb can convince them otherwise.
