The White House isn’t messing around anymore. With his whole squad in-tow Thursday morning, President Trump headed to Capitol Hill to bring the pain against the House Freedom Caucus.
While the president appears willing to negotiate, his current message is brutal, simple, and consistent: get on board or get steamrolled come primary season. But that menacing threat could be coming from a paper tiger of a populist.
A closer look at election data should stiffen conservatives’ spines. Of 30 confirmed Freedom Caucus members, two-dozen won their congressional races by a wider margin than Trump defeated Hillary Clinton. There’s only a susceptible six, who would risk it all by opposing the president.
But any Freedom Caucus members not named Reps. Alex Mooney of West Virginia, Ted Yoho of Florida, Scott DesJarlais of Tennessee, Raúl Labrador of Idaho, Griffith Morgan of Virginia, or Mark Meadows of North Carolina should be alright. Another two, Reps. Mo Brooks of Alabama and Ron DeSantis of Florida, are within a vulnerable margin of error.
A quick review of the data compiled by the folks over at Daily Kos should give Freedom Caucus members courage as the administration puts them through the ringer. They’ve outperformed Trump once and some of them would have a fighting chance to do it again.
Oh sure, it’s a risky staring match. That’s obvious. Sticking with their coup would cost some seats. As a general rule, though, internal purges aren’t popular in American politics. President Franklin Roosevelt tried one with limited success against conservative Democrats after his 1936 reelection. Significantly less popular, Trump might not fare much better. Already his populism appears blunted after inauguration.
What’s more, the group has more to lose than gain by blinking. Since the little faction started meeting in the basement of a Mexican restaurant just a stone’s throw from the Rayburn House Office Building, they’ve religiously opposed any expansion of government or increase in spending. They frivolously negotiate that away now and they throw away their influence.
Going along and getting along would be the safest political option. But the Freedom Caucus shouldn’t be quick to give up their opposition. If the last election provides guidance for the next, it seems they’d have a fighting chance at survival. Wilting before Trump’s fervor isn’t the only option.
Philip Wegmann is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
