Lebanese Hezbollah and its allies are driving the Lebanese state toward complete failure.
The meltdown has been a long time coming, but it was exacerbated by the July 2020 Beirut port explosion. Encapsulating the government’s endemic mismanagement, corruption, and lack of interest in serving its people, that explosion offers a metaphor for the coming political explosion. The ingredients for the crisis are clear.
Lebanon’s economy is in free fall. Its currency has collapsed. Its government is unable to pay for much-needed medical, engineering, and critical utility imports. Making matters worse, the currency collapse has smashed a once-flourishing black market. This has led to a situation in which Lebanese of all classes (except the kleptocratic elite) are unable to access regular power supplies, basic medicines, and even food. Ration cards have just been introduced for the poorest citizens. According to the United Nations, more than half the population now lives in poverty, and the middle class shrunk by 30% in the last year.
Facing this human catastrophe, top political actors are blocking political reforms necessary to fix things. Front and center is the resistance of President Michel Aoun and Hezbollah to a comprehensive political reform program. That reform effort centers on Prime Minister-designate Saad Hariri’s attempts to forge a consensus around a technocratic Cabinet that could act in the national interest.
The government, structured around a sectarian division of power, has been unable to reform its banking sector or establish more prudent control over government spending accounts. Hezbollah and Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement (now led by his son-in-law, Gebran Bassil) are the major obstacles. They have used the sectarian system to enrich themselves and veto reforms at their expense. While Aoun and Bassil are kleptocrats, Hezbollah remains obsessed with using Lebanon as a sovereign shield for its Iran-aligned external agenda. They appear to care nothing for Lebanese citizens outside their narrow ideological orbit.
It’s not clear what will happen next. Hariri is expected to introduce another government formation plan in the coming days. But Aoun has shown no signs of backing down. Meanwhile, Hezbollah is deflecting its culpability by pretending that foreign saboteurs are responsible for the crisis. One small sign of hope can be seen in the increasing efforts of erstwhile Hezbollah ally and Amal party leader Nabih Berri to assist Hariri in getting a new government into office. Berri appears to recognize that time is running out.
For able-minded politicians, the sense of urgency is real. The normally sanctions-hesitant European Union has just pledged to introduce sanctions on senior Lebanese politicians. It’s a warning shot off Aoun’s bow. The Biden administration should now work with France (which is leading EU diplomatic efforts on Lebanon) and U.S. allies in the Middle East to ensure that serious reform precedes any bailout. Otherwise, the present crisis will simply be a stepping stone to worse problems in the future.
