When watching an unusually exciting football game, I sometimes push the mute button so that I can concentrate on the action on the field. At times, noisy commentary and crowds becloud the game itself, causing one to miss out on some of the more subtle field action.

This is how I feel as I seek to assess the 2019 U.S. economic outlook. There are so many tweets and so much noisy commentary that one can lose sight of what the real economy is doing. It’s time to hit the mute button and see what the facts have to say about 2019’s prospects.