President Trump deserves credit for his tough Thursday afternoon message to Turkey.
The United States will impose large sanctions on Turkey for their long time detainment of Pastor Andrew Brunson, a great Christian, family man and wonderful human being. He is suffering greatly. This innocent man of faith should be released immediately!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 26, 2018
Turkey has responded to that statement by re-emphasizing that it won’t release Pastor Andrew Brunson unless and until the U.S. transfers Fethullah Gulen to its custody. This is idiotic.
Gulen is a critic of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, but the U.S. has no justifiable legal reason to extradite him. Turkey’s expectation of a quid pro quo is also absurd for another reason: Andrew Brunson has done nothing wrong. Erdogan’s case against the American pastor rests on shoddy and contradictory evidence that he is a terrorist member of Gulen’s organization.
Which speaks to what’s actually going on here. Basically, Erdogan is just being Erdogan: a leader with Trump’s ego, Vladimir Putin’s brutality, and Silvio Berlusconi’s eccentricity, but none of Berlusconi’s charm, Putin’s intellect, and Trump’s humor. And there’s only one way to deal with Erdogan when he’s being petulant and ridiculous as he is here: to out-escalate him, as Trump is now doing.
Still, the looming increase in U.S. pressure isn’t simply justified simply by Turkey’s continuing detention of Brunson.
Erdogan is also behaving unacceptably in a range of other areas of relevance to the U.S. Most notably, Turkey is attempting to buy the F-35 strike fighter and the Russian S-400 air defense system. That action is incompatible with Turkey’s responsibility to NATO and endangers U.S. air crews by risking Russian military and intelligence personnel getting inside the F-35 avionics systems.
Similarly, in Syria, Turkey is harassing Kurdish civilians, supporting Russian efforts to end the U.S. presence in that nation (which is crucial towards reducing the long-term threat of the Islamic State). Erdogan is also whipping up his cyclical anti-Israel hatred by describing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu as Hitler. Or something.
But what should Trump do?
Well, recognizing relevant legislation in Congress, Trump should take steps to cut off Erdogan’s access to the international financial lending system. Doing so would have an immediate but proportionate impact on the Turkish president’s conception of interests. That’s because it would tighten Turkey’s heavy reliance on international credit and further deter international investment into the Turkish economy. As the charts below show (via Trading Economics and XE.com), credit-investment concerns have meant that while Turkey’s economy is booming, it is also experiencing major inflationary pressures and declining currency values.
In short, targeting the Turkish economy will send a clear message to Erdogan that his ego carries a hefty economic cost.
