Germany has relinquished any aspirations of a leadership role in Europe. Its inadequate response to Russia’s attack on Ukraine has exposed Berlin more as an obstacle to European security rather than as a defender. German policy is also hypocritical by preaching anti-corruption to Balkan states seeking to join the European Union while enabling massive Russian penetration of its economy and political system.
Germany became Europe’s economic powerhouse on the foundations of the U.S. Marshall Plan, which launched massive reconstruction from the ruins of World War Two. America’s military umbrella enabled Germany to focus on economic development and neglect any effective responsibility for Europe’s security. The end of the Cold War was naively perceived in Berlin as the end of division so that business could be pursued with an allegedly democratizing Russia regardless of European interests and values.
UKRAINE GIVES MAJOR RUSSIAN FORCE CHOICE ‘TO RETREAT OR TO DIE’
Successive German governments opened up the country to Russian state influence, which penetrated all major political parties, national institutions, banks, businesses, and energy corporations. The results of this massive Russian corruption were visible in energy projects such as the Nord Stream pipelines and the laundering of billions of Russian dirty money through German banks. The results of Moscow’s penetration of German foreign policy have been evident since the launch of its extended war against Ukraine.
Berlin has been reluctant to send weapons to Kyiv, allegedly fearing that this could provoke Moscow and escalate the conflict. The one party that has learned practical lessons from Germany’s own imperial history is the Greens, who contend that a genocidal regime has to be stopped by military force as early as possible. After months of pressure from its own public and NATO partners, Berlin finally began to supply Kyiv with desperately needed air-defense systems, multiple rocket launchers, and self-propelled howitzers.
Yet Berlin has also been hesitant in imposing tough economic sanctions against Moscow. Again, it fears the impact on its own economy rather than taking the strategic high ground. Germany is also dragging its feet on providing economic support for Ukraine. A recent G7 conference in Berlin devoted to Ukraine lacked any concrete pledges for post-war reconstruction, and a proposed new Marshall Plan seems a distant prospect largely because of German reluctance. Washington believes that the European Union should take the economic lead just as the United States has taken the military lead in aiding Kyiv. Sadly, Germany’s aid to Ukraine as a percentage of its gross domestic product pales in comparison with its poorer eastern neighbors. Poland and Lithuania have pledged nearly half a percentage point of their GDP to Ukraine, while Estonia and Latvia pledged almost 1 percentage point. In comparison, Berlin’s commitments amount to a pitiful 0.085% of its GDP.
Germany’s failures in Ukraine are mirrored in its shortcomings in the Western Balkans. Berlin’s international high representative in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt, recently enacted controversial reforms for seats in the Bosniak-Croat entity parliament that will strengthen the nationalist parties, deepen ethnic divisions, encourage separatism, and are likely to lead to armed conflicts.
Berlin is also at the forefront of EU efforts to conclude an agreement on mutual recognition between Serbia and Kosovo. However, it continues to tolerate the destabilizing policies of the pro-Kremlin Serbian government of Aleksandar Vucic, which is intent on undermining the integrity of Kosovo, Bosnia, and Montenegro. A current German-French plan for reaching an accord between Serbia and Kosovo has no enforcement mechanisms and little hope for success. Unless Berlin, together with its European partners, imposes deadlines and consequences for rejecting a bilateral settlement, the plan will culminate in yet another German strategic failure in dealing with European security.
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Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His new book, Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture, has just been published.
