President Trump’s shocking upset in the 2016 presidential election was a humbling one for most political prognosticators. But as the 2020 race gathers steam, the media run the risk of overcorrecting for their previous failures.

The central mistake that pundits made during the 2016 election was the default assumption that Trump’s candidacy was so obviously absurd that he couldn’t possibly win the nomination of a major party, let alone capture the presidency.

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