China suffered a blow this week with Britain’s decision to remove Huawei from its 5G network. But the timeline for that removal and growing international frustration toward Beijing’s arrogance explains why China’s reaction has been more muted than many would have expected.
Beijing is focused on the long-term expansion of its trade and political power. Albeit a significant one, Huawei is just one part of that strategy, not its citadel. This is not to say China isn’t angry with Britain. Reacting to Boris Johnson’s change, of course, the prime minister originally authorized Huawei to build out part of the United Kingdom’s 5G network, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson claimed he had “eroded mutual trust underpinning China-U.K. cooperation. China strongly opposes this move. It is not just about one company and one industrial sector. It is about the U.K. politicizing commercial and technological issues at all costs.”
The spokesperson continued, “We have a saying in China, which basically means ‘you reap what you sow.’ All the decision and actions come with price tags. … Is Britain OK with being a subordinate and a cat’s paw for the U.S.?”
Disappointment, yes. Anger, yes. Rage a la Beijing’s Wolf warrior diplomat form? No.
Hu Xijin, editor of China’s west-focus foghorn the Global Times, explains why. Referencing Britain’s rule that Huawei needs to be out of the 5G network only by 2027, Hu tweeted that this long delay “indicates it’s difficult to leave Huawei. But there could be change before and after [2027].”
China’s hope is that Britain will shift course in 2024 when a new Parliament is elected. Between then and now, China will do everything it can to undermine its 5G competitors (Nokia and Ericsson should expect a lot more cyberattacks in the years ahead) and lobby politicians to re-accept Beijing’s signal intelligence service into Britain’s long-term telecommunications network.
Then there’s Beijing’s grudging recognition that its arrogance over just about every issue in international relations isn’t helping its interests. Indeed, it is jeopardizing President Xi Jinping’s long-term strategy to situate China as the global hegemon. China has not helped its coronavirus-related image crisis by selling shoddy medical goods, using its various embassies as troll factories, and daily deploying the mouth-frothing Zhao Lijian to the foreign ministry rostrum (Zhao was away on Wednesday). What China wants at this moment, as best encapsulated by its recent faux-detente gambit with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, is to keep its reputation above water until it can get rid of the Trump administration and win the race to a viable coronavirus vaccine. Beyond the South China Sea, which it sees as a critical test of its ability to overcome American global leadership, Beijing doesn’t want to further agitate other nations if it can avoid doing so.
In short, when it comes to Huawei, the fact that Britain might again change course joins to Beijing’s belief that there’s not much it can do at this moment to rush that possibility. And that anything it can do will likely cause more harm than good.
As the ancient Chinese fable has taught Xi, the foolish old man removes the mountains. Patient perseverance is a game Beijing well understands.
