By relenting to pressure from red state Democratic senators in tough re-election races and opting to delay any executive action on immigration until after the midterm elections, President Obama has made what on the surface is the politically safer decision.
But delaying action until after the election also carries its own political risks.
The liberal Washington Post blogger Greg Sargent, who is always helpful in providing insight to Democratic thinking, wrote that a fear among Democrats was that energizing conservative voters in red states where there are competitive races, Democrats risked losing the Senate. And that would deal a bigger blow to prospects for more comprehensive immigration reform.
But the flip side is that by delaying action that Obama had been tantalizingly waving in front of immigration activists for months, he has also risked demoralizing his own base in the run up to the election. As Sargent writes, “Immigration advocates, who have been asked to place their demands for deportation relief on hold for months and months — each time getting promised action was right around the corner — will be enraged, however, and there will now be a very bitter dispute between the White House and Senate Dems and a key component of their base.”
This anger was immediately apparent once news broke on the delay.
“The president’s latest broken promise is another slap to the face of the Latino and immigrant community,” Cristina Jimenez, managing director for United We Dream, a group which has been pushing for action, said in an emailed statement. “On June 30, President Obama stood in the Rose Garden and said, ‘If Congress will not do their job, at least we can do ours. I expect [Department of Homeland Security and Department of Justice’s] recommendations before the end of summer and I intend to adopt those recommendations without further delay.’ Dreamers have held him accountable at every corner, but the President is more content playing politics with the lives of our families.”
The group vowed, “Dreamers are outraged and will take action. Obama’s legacy with our communities: deporter.”
Opinion of Obama among Hispanic voters has vacillated between support and disillusionment at various points in his presidency, and this decision is likely to renew the criticism that he’s been a big tease.
At the same time, it isn’t necessarily clear that this non-action will dampen the enthusiasm of the GOP base. Republicans can still argue that Obama made a political decision to delay action, but he will do so right after the election — which is why voters need send him a message by making sure that his party loses control of the Senate. The move also may energize conservative activists who sense weakness and see regaining the Senate as an opportunity to effectively end the Obama presidency.
As for the prospects of comprehensive immigration reform, there is simply no way that it will happen during the Obama presidency regardless of whether Democrats maintain control of the Senate. The best chance that liberals had for comprehensive immigration reform was actually when President Bush was pushing it and there was enough Republican support to get it across the finish line if Democrats broadly went along. But they didn’t want to give that victory to a weak Republican president, especially when the prospect of regaining power and getting a better deal was so close.
Going forward, Democrats would have to win the White House in 2016, control the House and Senate and then make comprehensive immigration reform the top priority of the new president’s first year or two in office — which has become the modern window to get major legislation passed.
