The ailing King Salman of Saudi Arabia has replaced Crown Prince Mohammed bin Nayef with Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
The crown prince is the successor-designate to the Saudi throne.
The first thing to note, however, is that this doesn’t portend any major changes in the kingdom’s pro-U.S. sentiment. Both Mohammed bin Nayef and Mohammed bin Salman belong to the pro-U.S. wing of the House of Saud. They recognize that the U.S. government is crucial to the royal family’s long term survival.
Instead, while there’s a dynastic element to King Salman’s pick (bin Salman is his son), this appointment speaks to looming domestic reforms.
After all, just 31 years old, Mohammed bin Salman breaks the tradition of geriatric Saudi monarchs. By appointing bin Salman as crown prince, King Salman knows he’s laying a foundation for around five decades.
And under the banner of his “Vision 2030” program, bin Salman plans vast changes to Saudi Arabia’s governance, economy and society.
His first priority is economic reform. The crown prince recognizes that Saudi Arabia’s glory days of global energy domination are done. With the advent of fracking and affordable exports of liquid natural gas in the U.S., and rising renewable energy usage, bin Salman knows the Saudi economy needs refooting. He wants to balance the Saudi budget with a mix of spending cuts, efficiency savings, and reduced subsidies. At present, Saudi Arabia is racking up huge deficits in throwing largesse to its citizens.
In addition, bin Salman plans market pricing reforms for the energy and water industries. That’s a big deal. It will upset many Saudis accustomed to the government providing everything at near zero prices. Moreover, it represents a cultural change away from Saudi feudalism towards modernity.
Next up is bin Salman’s agenda of boosting tourism to Saudi Arabia. Witnessing Dubai’s success in attracting Westerners to five-star resorts, bin Salman wants in on the action. But, at least as a first step, bin Salman is focusing on Muslim pilgrims to the holy cities of Mecca and Medina. He’s promising a robust tourist infrastructure and service base. It’s a clever strategy. By framing tourism investments around fellow Muslims, bin Salman dilutes the criticism of Wahhabi hardliners who fear the encroachment of western influence.
In education reform, bin Salman wants future generations to able to rise to the challenge of globalization. He also clearly recognizes the need for greater freedom for young people. Vision 2030 explains that education reform will focus on “fundamental values of initiative, persistence and leadership, as well as social skills, cultural knowledge and self-awareness. [Saudi Arabia] will also promote cultural, social, volunteering and athletic activities through empowering our educational, cultural and entertainment institutions.” The importance of this effort cannot be overstated. 45 percent of the Saudi population are under 25. In the age of oil austerity, unless the kingdom offers fulfillment to those youths, it will burn. Angry young men are the great recruitment pool for Salafi-extremists.
Then there’s that most complicated of Saudi concerns: women’s rights.
Here, bin Salman has been careful to avoid starting a fight too early. He knows it’s a red-line for the Saudi Ulama (clergy). If he moves too quickly, he will destabilize the kingdom. Still, Vision 2030 shows where bin Salman wants to go. It notes that “Saudi women are yet another great asset. With over 50 percent of our university graduates being female, we will continue to develop their talents, invest in their productive capabilities and enable them to strengthen their future and contribute to the development of our society and economy.”
These are big words. As a first step, bin Salman is likely to reduce restrictions on how and where women can work (at present they face many regulations designed to prevent employment contact and competition with men).
Finally, there’s foreign policy. And here, bin Salman has shown a worrying tendency for fights he cannot win. The Saudi incursion into Yemen is the best example. That said, as I’ve repeatedly explained, to influence Saudi foreign policy away from political sectarianism and rolling of the dice, the U.S. must consolidate Saudi Arabia against Iran. The House of Saud is paranoid by Iranian expansionism. With greater confidence in U.S. leadership to deter Iran, bin Salman might be more willing to heed U.S. counsel.
Ultimately, this pick is good news for Saudi Arabia and the U.S. The new Crown Prince is unpredictable, but he is bold. And that is exactly what Saudi Arabia needs. Unless Saudi Arabia is bold, its 2030 horizon is one of human misery and terrorism.
And be under no illusions that terrorism will not stay on Saudi soil. The U.S. must hope bin Salman succeeds.
