I couldn’t help but snicker when I saw the Virginia House of Delegates passed a bill that would award the state’s electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the nationwide popular vote. In other words, it doesn’t really matter what Virginia voters want. If they’re out of step with the rest of the country’s majority, then their votes are canceled.
This is a movement called the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact. So far, 15 states and the District of Columbia have signed on to this radical change in the way we elect our president.
Conservatives are up in arms about the change. But before you get too upset, let me explain why conservatives should cheer when every blue state jumps into the compact.
This agreement is only being adopted in blue states. The last time any of the 15 states voted for a Republican presidential candidate was 2004. As long as conservative states ignore it, it can only benefit Republicans. If enough states join the compact, states such as California, Oregon, and Illinois have passed laws that would give all of their electoral votes to the popular vote winner. You think a Republican has a prayer carrying those states anyway?
Consider this hypothetical scenario. Let’s say a Republican stands to lose the Electoral College under the current system we have now, falling just short of 270 electoral votes. But perhaps the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact has taken effect (2020 would be too early, but perhaps in 2024), and the Republican manages the win the popular vote. Then all those 15 blue states would have to give their electoral votes to the Republican, on top of the red states the Republican carried.
Not only does the Republican win the White House, but the Electoral College looks like a landslide! States such as California, New York, and Illinois would be forced by their own laws to cast their electoral college votes to the Republican, no matter how much the Democratic nominee carried their state by.
NBC News had a piece in July 2019 plotting out a scenario in which President Trump could lose the popular vote by 5 million votes and still win reelection. That’s partly, they reasoned, because California is becoming more and more dominated by Democrats. In 2016, Hillary Clinton won California with 62% of the vote. But for now, it doesn’t matter if the Democrat wins California with 100% of the vote; they get the same 55 electoral votes.
This is exactly why the founders wanted the electoral college system, so large states can’t run roughshod over the smaller ones.
As long as the conservative states don’t fall for this folly, there’s really only an upside for Republicans. If they lose, they’re going to lose. But if they win the popular vote, they’re going to mop up.
Just don’t spill the secret to Virginia.
Phil Valentine (@ValentineShow) is host of The Phil Valentine Show on 99.7FM WTN in Nashville. He’s also host of the podcast I’m Calling Bovine Scatology.
