In many ways, the 2020 presidential election is like any other campaign season. An incumbent who is popular among his own set, but much less so with the general public, has a difficult task before him: convince a greater number of voters to support him at the polls. While President Trump’s policies may turn some away, it is his personality that seems to deter individuals of all political stripes.
During the 2016 election cycle, the issue of abortion was frequently cited as a determining factor in voting. The electorate knew that the 45th president would make at least one Supreme Court nomination following Justice Antonin Scalia’s death in February 2016. Justice Anthony Kennedy’s July 2018 retirement opened the door for Trump’s second appointment to the highest court in the land. With the addition of Justices Neil Gorsuch and Brett Kavanaugh, abortion has become even more of a divisive issue for voters. The proof is tangible; it isn’t just seen in arguments and hashtags on social media.
Across the nation, states legislatures are passing either more permissive or restrictive abortion laws. This polarizing reality may mean that the hot-button issue will define yet another election, even more so than previous ones.
Citing new laws in Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and comparable proposals in South Carolina, Minnesota, Missouri, and elsewhere, Axios noted:
It is clear to anyone following politics that Democrats, who once categorized their feelings on abortion as “safe, legal, and rare” have shifted to almost celebrating this “right.” For some, including presidential candidates, it is akin to a sacrament.
This ban is dangerous and exceptionally cruel—and the bill’s authors want to use it to overturn Roe v. Wade. I’ve lived in that America and let me tell you: We are not going back—not now, not ever. We will fight this. And we will win. https://t.co/WNlr7Ys73q
— Elizabeth Warren (@ewarren) May 15, 2019
Appalling news out of #Alabama as lawmakers vote to effectively criminalize abortion. It’s time to stand up and speak out. We must defeat this unconstitutional and shameless attempt to strip women of their right to make health care choices. https://t.co/VgiJ0stS6r
— Julián Castro (@JulianCastro) May 15, 2019
Seemingly now more than ever, abortion will determine which candidate receives the votes of concerned citizens. Exactly how this will influence the electorate remains to be seen.
Trump’s 2016 supporters included plenty of voters who remained reluctant to fully endorse his behavior. Although they didn’t appreciate all of his actions, they felt that voting for Hillary Clinton, or abstaining entirely, was out of the question. Overwhelmingly, it seems the final, motivating factor was the issue of abortion. A Democrat could not be trusted to appoint a Supreme Court justice, nor could they be given the ability to veto life-affirming legislation.
Have any of these factors changed in the years since? Probably not. The argument can easily be made that instead of waning or even leveling out, abortion has become the topic that defines the rest of a candidate’s platform or a voter’s personal worldview.
A domino effect can be blamed for at least part of the increased tensions. The appointments of Gorsuch and Kavanaugh spurred abortion-supporting Democrats to ramp up their efforts to protect what they see as an issue of personal freedom. In turn, pro-life Republicans have answered with legislation of their own, such as heartbeat bills.
The back-and-forth between states reflects an escalating division that is headed for a showdown on the national level come Nov. 3, 2020. Abortion proponents will support the Democratic candidate. Meanwhile, pro-lifers, some of them reluctantly, will choose Trump. In the end, one side will be more motivated than the other to protect their position. That may spell victory.
Abortion has always been a factor in elections. While it remains a major issue, the Trump era has thrust it even further into the spotlight, attaching greater significance to both it and the politicians who espouse their varied beliefs. Voting for a specific candidate is a loud declaration of where you stand on the supposed “right” to take a life. It’s a powerful barometer that may help win Trump a second term, or bring about his very first election defeat.
Kimberly Ross (@SouthernKeeks) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog and a columnist at Arc Digital.
