As the 2014 November midterm elections loom ever closer, a new batch of polls released this week offers possible clues as to which party will control Congress next year.
The Republican Party had in recent months lost its advantage over Democrats, according to various forecasters, including 538’s Nate Silver. This week’s surveys, however, suggest a GOP resurgence.
Here are the most important polls released this week.
Former Attorney General Dan Sullivan, a Republican, has managed to take the lead against his opponent, Sen. Mark Begich, D-Alaska, leading the incumbent senator 43 percent to 41 percent, according to the Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling.
The PPP survey, which was released Tuesday, was conducted Sept. 18 to 21 and contains a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percentage points. It surveyed 880 likely voters aged 18 and older.
A separate Rasmussen survey released Thursday shows Sullivan leading Begich 48 to 43 percent. This survey was conducted Sept. 23 to 24, and contains a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Sullivan’s lead comes at a time when outside groups have poured roughly $20 million into the race, the largest share going to attacks on the Republican candidate.
Rep. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., has managed to overcome a major deficit in outside spending to take a five-point lead against incumbent Sen. Mark Pryor, D-Ark., according to Public Policy Polling.
A separate USA Today/Suffolk University shows that Pryor holds a slim 45-43 lead over Cotton. This survey, which was released Tuesday, was conducted Sept. 20 to 23 and contains a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Outside Democratic groups have committed $10 million to attacking Cotton, but it doesn’t appear to have slowed the Republican candidate’s momentum.
Colorado:
Rep. Cory Gardner, R-Colo., has taken a slim two-point lead over incumbent Sen. Mark Udall, D-Colo., the continuation of what has been a very close race, according to new results from PPP. The Republican challenger currently holds 47-45 lead in the hotly contested race, which is a “statistical tie,” based on the survey’s 3.8 percent margin of error, according to the report. Counting both partisan and non-partisan polls, Gardner now leads in the last five surveys.
Georgia:
Republican businessman David Perdue narrowly leads against his Democratic opponent, Michelle Nunn, 46 percent to 45 percent, according to SurveyUSA/WXIA report released Monday.
The survey was conducted from Sept. 19 to 22 and contains a sampling error of margin of 4.3 percentage points. The poll surveyed 550 likely voters.
North Carolina:
Incumbent Sen. Kay Hagan, D-N.C., leads Republican challenger state Rep. Thom Thillis 46-42, according to a Gravis Marketing survey released Thursday by Human Events.
The survey was conducted Sept. 22 to 23 and contains a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. It surveyed 860 likely voters.
Virginia:
Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., holds a healthy 48-39 lead over Republican Ed Gillespie, according to a Quinnipiac survey released Thursday.
“U.S. Sen. Mark Warner has been the most popular politician in Virginia for the past several years and appears to be in reasonable shape for re-election,” assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll said Peter A. Brown in a statement. “But his lead is not insurmountable with six weeks to go until Election Day.”
The Quinnipiac survey was conducted Sept. 17 to 22, polled 1,010 likely voters and contains a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
A separate PPP survey released Friday shows about the same: Warner leads Gillespie 48-35.
This survey was conducted Sept. 22 to 23, surveyed 625 likely voters and contains a sampling margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Problems for Democrats:
President Obama continues to act as something of an albatross around the necks of vulnerable Democratic candidates as his approval rating continues to languish.
The president’s approval rating currently sits at 42 percent, according to the latest data from Gallup, which is a bit of a decrease from the short-lived bump he enjoyed earlier in September.
Obama’s approval rating has suffered especially badly in the Hispanic community, diving recently with the president’s decision to punt immigration reform until after the November midterm elections. The Hispanic approval rating plummeted from 74 percent in 2013 to 52 percent in August 2014, according to the monthly Gallup report released Friday.
The Gallup survey of the president’s approval rating among Hispanics was conducted from January 2009 through August 2014. The surveys sampled 1,300 Hispanics, aged 18 and older, and contains a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
And then, of course, there’s the continued unpopularity of the Affordable Care Act, Obama’s signature piece of domestic legislation.
Forty-seven percent of Americans say they disapprove of the massive healthcare law, while only 35 percent say they approve, according to the latest tracking data from the Kaiser Family Foundation.
