Military developments in the Black Sea accompanied by hyperbolic statements from Russian officials highlight growing fears in the Kremlin over Russia’s future.
With a new spike in the COVID-19 pandemic rolling across Russia and economic conditions deteriorating on the eve of the September parliamentary elections, President Vladimir Putin needs foreign scapegoats to keep the masses in line. Hence why the Black Sea has become a major focus of Kremlin pressure and propaganda in recent weeks. It’s a centerpiece of the Kremlin’s desire to expand its territorial and maritime dominance. By seizing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014, Moscow claimed Ukraine’s territorial waters. It now uses the peninsula to build up its military capabilities and threaten all littoral states. The only factor restraining further attacks on Ukraine and Georgia is the presence of NATO forces led by the United States.
NATO exercises in the Black Sea demonstrate that these waters are not Putin’s private lake. In fact, it bears noting that Russia’s share of the Black Sea coastline is less than 10%. Three NATO states (Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania) possess almost 57% of the total coastline, with NATO partners Ukraine and Georgia holding the rest. Despite NATO’s geographical advantage, Moscow is engaged in an extensive military buildup to control sea lanes, maritime economic zones, and energy deposits.
To disguise his goals, Putin depicts routine NATO exercises as preparations for an attack on Russian territory. In reality, the 12-day Sea Breeze 2021 exercises have been held annually since 1997, and this year, they involved over 5,000 troops, 32 ships, and 40 aircraft from 32 NATO countries and partners. The exercises are co-hosted by the Ukrainian navy and the U.S. Navy’s 6th Fleet and are an important signal of deterrence against aspiring aggressors. The hysteria by Russian officials over the passage of a British warship on June 23 near the Crimean coast, which all NATO states acknowledge as belonging to Ukraine, reveals Moscow’s fear that its stolen possessions will be returned to their rightful owners — and in turn, that Russia’s other imperial holdings will be confiscated.
Russia is one of the few countries with persistent debates among academics and frequent statements by political leaders about the survival and territorial integrity of the state. Officials frequently repeat conspiracy theories that Western powers seek to divide and fracture Russia. These discussions and assertions indicate that fear of state disintegration is widespread in political circles. In such uncertain conditions, driven by paranoia and imperial complexes, a key purpose of the federal “power vertical” with Putin at the apex is to prevent the country’s fracture.
According to the Kremlin narrative, democracy and decentralization lead to chaos and state disintegration, while only dictatorship can save the country. By trying to convince the public that Putinism guarantees Russia’s existence, officials inadvertently reveal that the Russian Federation’s power structure is brittler than that of the Soviet Union. That’s because of modern Russia’s overreliance on the persona of one leader. The Kremlin deputy chief of staff, Vyacheslav Volodin, has asserted that “there is no Russia today if there is no Putin,” indicating a profound fear of state collapse once Putin is gone.
Officially managed public poll ratings are closely monitored in the Kremlin. After the seizure of Crimea in 2014, support for Putin increased as state media outlets were saturated with claims of restored Russian glory. Since then, however, support has steadily declined, even according to officially approved data. In an opinion poll released by the reputable Levada Center in February 2021, 41% of respondents voiced opposition to Putin remaining in power, more than at any other point since 2014. The Kremlin fears that public support for Putin is even more shallow and unreliable and might rapidly disappear.
The incompetence of political leaders has been stark during the pandemic. Russia has been hit harder than its European neighbors. From a population of 146 million, Russia has registered 6 million confirmed COVID-19 cases and almost a half-million excess fatalities. A new pandemic wave this summer threatens to spiral out of control and is resulting in record daily deaths. The failure to counter the pandemic effectively or to distribute significant relief funds highlights government neglect amid escalating poverty.
The regime has given mixed signals on vaccinations. It has also refused to import more effective vaccines than its own Sputnik V variant, while the Russian population has become even more distrustful of government claims about the pandemic and vaccinations. The lifting of quarantine restrictions could witness a major upsurge in protests as people express their repressed frustrations with government failure. And although the September elections will be rigged to favor Putin’s United Russia Party, they might unleash a new wave of grievance that Moscow will try to deflect on to foreign scapegoats.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book, Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks, is co-authored with Margarita Assenova. His future book is titled Failed State: Planning for Russia’s Rupture.
