It’s time for Nikki Haley, former U.N. ambassador and former governor of South Carolina, to seriously explore a challenge to Donald Trump for the Republican presidential nomination.
I’m not kidding — I really think Haley could win.
Not that it would be easy, of course. But it’s doable, if she plays her cards just right. And with Trump becoming more and more volatile, a major challenge to him is necessary as a national safety valve.
Let’s talk brass tacks: Why Haley, and how can she win?
Haley is almost certainly the only major Republican who has emerged from the Trump presidency with their reputation and stature actually enhanced. Her poll ratings are sky high. Politically savvy and tough, with a strong sense of mainstream conservative principle, Haley forged an independent identity while representing the United States at the U.N. She stood foursquare for American interests and values, without ever appearing shrill, bullying, or blustering. She was all business, and she followed through.
Sure, Trump appears hard to defeat among Republicans, with whom right now he is inordinately popular. But with someone as volatile as he is, that could change. Drill down among a lot of his supporters, and they’ll say they like the job he’s doing on many fronts but don’t like his behavior or personality. If, as some fear, the economy seriously slows, Trump’s support could erode as quickly as George H. W. Bush’s did from mid-1991 (89% approval among all voters) to his reelection defeat just 18 months later.
It could well be that if Republican voters are given an alternative who they think can deliver many of the same policies, but without the constant volatility and divisive rhetoric, they might decide the system has had enough creative disruption and now needs a steadier hand.
The Republican primary/caucus calendar actually makes it more reasonable than most people think for a strong challenger like Haley to deliver a sudden, devastating shock that makes Trump’s alleged inevitability crumble.
The first caucus, in Iowa, is in a state Trump can’t count on winning. Trump lost the Iowa caucuses in 2016. Trump’s trade wars have been particularly hard on the American farm belt. Trump’s bombastic personality isn’t stylistically well suited to Iowa. And while Trump still does well in top-line Iowa poll numbers, a near-plurality of Iowans have said for a while they hope a serious challenger to Trump emerges.
Iowa’s Republican senior statesman, revered U.S. Sen. Chuck Grassley, will be 89 years old by Election Day of 2022, when his current term runs out. It is quite likely he will retire. He therefore would be free, without fear of personal electoral repercussions, to do the right thing and endorse Haley against Trump. If he does, and if he effectively turns over his organization to her, she could well win the caucuses.
Bloodied by that defeat, Trump would no longer look like such a tough guy. As his whole persona depends on him appearing (to many) to be the strongest guy around, a setback like this would be even more harmful to him than to most incumbents.
Sure, he might recover in the first primary state, New Hampshire, but even that is uncertain. Either way, winning New Hampshire wouldn’t boost him much. He won there in 2016, too, so there is little way he could exceed expectations in a way that truly regains momentum.
The big advantage for Haley would come next. Her own South Carolina traditionally is the next presidential contest, and it has a long history of “breaking the tie” between the winners of Iowa and New Hampshire and, in effect, choosing the Republican nominee.
Right now, South Carolina Republicans have not yet agreed to hold their traditional primary in 2020. The Democratic contest, though, is set for Feb. 29, still before the Mar. 3 “Super Tuesday” on which 13 states hold contests. If the GOP, now with a “favorite daughter” in the field, does the normal thing and holds its primary the same day, she could stomp Trump there and carry tremendous momentum into Super Tuesday.
Republican voters no longer would be choosing between Trump and a hated “establishment.” They would be choosing between a weakened Trump and a politically attractive, undefeated candidate who surely would be showing substantially better in polling matchups against Democrats than Trump would.
In short, Haley could defeat Trump. And she has just the profile to unite right and center and not just win, but win in a landslide, against a leftist Democratic nominee in the general election. It will just take a lot of courage, and a bold risk to run now instead of waiting.
Run, Nikki, run!
