Things have been looking grimmer for the GOP’s chances of retaking Congress thanks to several poor candidates and a renewed focus on former President Donald Trump. But some races reflect the national environment Republicans should be seeing, and Colorado is chief among them.
In a recent poll, Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet leads Republican challenger Joe O’Dea by just 1 percentage point, 48%-47%. O’Dea was among the best GOP recruits of the cycle, and the Democratic Party’s Senate Majority PAC recognized this, trying to prop up election denier state Rep. Ron Hanks. That effort failed, and now Bennet is in a real race against a real opponent.
O’Dea is not alone. In two August polls in the race for governor, Democratic Gov. Jared Polis leads Heidi Ganahl by 5 and 7 points. On top of that, the same poll showing O’Dea just a point behind Bennet has the race for attorney general tied, with incumbent Democrat Phil Weiser and GOP challenger John Kellner at 44% each.
This is notable because Colorado has not been particularly competitive for Republicans recently. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump in the state by more than 13 points, and former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper defeated GOP Sen. Cory Gardner, who was as strong of a candidate the GOP could field, by 9 points. In 2018, Polis won his first term by nearly 11 points. Weiser only won by 6 points, but he hit 51%. Bennet won reelection in 2016 by 6 points, and the state had only turned bluer since then.
Republicans have shown strength in races in Michigan, Wisconsin, New Mexico, Nevada, and even Oregon. That strength is now apparent in Colorado, which recent history would indicate should no longer be a swing state. A victory by O’Dea, in particular, could help the GOP flip the Senate — or at least staunch the bleeding if mediocre candidates lose winnable races in states such as Pennsylvania or Georgia.
The 2022 midterm elections are looking worse for Republicans than they should, but it is clear that the environment for victories has been here the entire time. Candidate quality matters, and Colorado is among the states playing that out in real time. Perhaps Republicans will be able to learn that lesson from all of this when November comes.
