CLEVELAND — There’s never been a primary season presidential debate with the buildup and sense of anticipation of the Fox News face off tonight at the Quicken Loans Arena. Some political veterans here in Cleveland have noted that the event has a general-election feel, with a huge press contingent and the attention of the entire political world. There’s an unmistakable feeling of excitement.
But some of the stars of the show — that is, the Republican presidential candidates themselves — would be perfectly happy if it turns out to be a very boring affair. Conversations with aides from some of the leading campaigns suggest that, while they know the presence of Donald Trump makes the primetime debate unpredictable, they have a hunch — and certainly a hope — that it could be a pretty well-behaved and fireworks-free discussion. And that would be absolutely fine with them.
They readily admit that what Trump does will determine the character of the debate. They’ve been watching Trump’s statements in the run-up to the debate and have noted that he has not sounded particularly aggressive or confrontational. Looking back on Trump’s behavior the last several weeks, they note that his attacks on other candidates came after those other candidates attacked him — when Trump is hit, he tends to hit back twice as hard. But they haven’t seen Trump initiating fights with his GOP rivals, and they have a feeling — again, the hope — that if they don’t try to pick a fight with him, he won’t go after them.
For some of the candidates, an event this big, with so many eyes watching, and at the same time so early in the primary schedule, means that there is no good reason for them to try something spectacular, to try to hit it out of the park. Rather, they see the debate as a high-profile chance to make the case for themselves, to try to stick to the issues Republican voters care about and focus their attacks on Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and the Democratic Party, and not their fellow Republicans. They know that a lot of GOP voters are turned off by candidates bickering among themselves.
The real wild card in their calculation is Fox News. (Note: I am a Fox News contributor but have not taken part in debate preparations.) It’s a given that the questions from the Fox moderators will be tough, substantive, and focused on big issues; that’s what distinguishes Fox from other networks. But the candidates just don’t know whether those questions will also be framed in a way that sets off disputes between the contenders. If that is the case, conflict will be inevitable. And the candidates’ hope for a nice, boring — and safe — debate will be out the window.
