The national exit poll released moments ago from the United Kingdom shows Boris Johnson’s Conservative Party is predicted to gain 50 seats, for a total of 368 members of parliament. That would be a huge win.
An effective majority in the new parliament (due to non-voting Sinn Fein members of parliament) is likely to be 322 seats. If the exit poll results are anywhere near accurate, Johnson is heading back into government with a commanding mandate in the House of Commons.
Brexit will likely happen by the end of January or shortly thereafter. But more than that, a majority of this size would give Johnson significant latitude to negotiate a long-term post-Brexit trading and political relationship with the European Union. In short, it would make the Conservative Party leader a very powerful prime minister.
For Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn, if the exit polls are true, it would be a disaster.
The far-left leader would appear to have alienated vast numbers of otherwise loyal Labour voters — in part over the nature of his distinctly old-school socialism, but also because of his ambivalence on Brexit. It would seem unlikely that his leadership could continue.
Of course, although these exit polls are generally quite accurate, they are only exit polls. We should have a very good idea of the final outcome by 11 p.m. EST on Thursday.
