There are new and significant indications that a Russian military invasion of Ukraine is imminent.
However, contrary to some reporting, I understand the United States and Britain have yet to assess that Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered such an invasion.
Front-line armored and mechanized infantry units surrounding Ukraine from the north, east, and south have not received final attack orders yet. Nor have artillery, strike fighter/bomber, electronic warfare, and missile units. But there are new indications for concern. I understand from sources the new intelligence entails one or more of the following elements:
- Movement by Russian military forces to forward positions closer to the Ukrainian border and commensurate with Western intelligence concerns regarding possible attack routes. Belarus is a key concern here.
- Unexpected alterations to Putin’s schedule and escalated command meetings by the most senior elements of the informal national security council. Note the Russian national security council does not involve final deliberative discussion of the most sensitive matters, such as an attack on Ukraine. Instead, this falls to a very small circle, including Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, National Security Council Chief Nikolai Patrushev, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, and SVR Foreign Intelligence Chief Sergey Naryshkin.
- Escalated alert status on the part of Russian military and diplomatic facilities globally.
- Significantly escalated traffic along encrypted Russian military communications networks. This could indicate the assignment of mission orders to military command groups. The U.S. and Britain will be able to decode some of this traffic and likely have already done so to a degree. Still, two caveats must be noted. First, the assignment of orders, timelines, and objectives is not the same as an order to attack. Second, Russian military strategy prioritizes the employment of deception, or what the Russians refer to as “Maskirovka”/”camouflage.” Any escalated traffic could center on false information and thus serve as a feint designed to elicit U.S. expectations of an imminent attack.
When will we know for sure if an invasion is occurring?
In military intelligence parlance, “warning lead time” refers to the time between a warning of an imminent military attack and the attack itself. Sources tell me this is likely to be at least 24 hours and perhaps up to 72 hours after Putin gives any final order to attack. In the shorter 24-hour window, the orders will leak when U.S. and British intelligence (via the NSA, GCHQ, and air force units) intercept communications and associated movements to final positions by Russian combat units.
But the intelligence community will prioritize reporting from Putin’s innermost circle as the most immediate evidence for an impending attack. This is extremely difficult, however, and risks jeopardizing the most sensitive sources. Detecting the movement of Russian military couriers, who may carry orders on their person, will also be a top priority.
Regardless, it’s clear things are heating up.
