Control of the Senate, its majority, agenda, and even the threat of impeachment are secondary concerns. The West Virginia Republican primary is instead a referendum on whether Trump can keep a hold of the populist base that made him president and he knows it.
To the great people of West Virginia we have, together, a really great chance to keep making a big difference. Problem is, Don Blankenship, currently running for Senate, can’t win the General Election in your State…No way! Remember Alabama. Vote Rep. Jenkins or A.G. Morrisey!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 7, 2018
Trump asked West Virginia to say no to coal baron and former federal convict Don Blankenship. That candidate responded that Trump doesn’t know him, that Trump has been misinformed by the establishment, and that Trump’s preferred candidates (Rep. Evan Jenkins and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey) haven’t improved the lives of everyday West Virginians.
“As some have said,” Blankenship concluded, “I am Trumpier than Trump and this morning proves it.” If he wins on Tuesday, it will be hard to disagree. A Blankenship victory has bad political and worse ideological consequences for Trump.
Again and again, political commentators have reminded that the Mountain State is base camp for the president. It is Trump country. A loss here would be devastating because If Trump can’t pick winners and losers in West Virginia, the facade will start chipping off his presidential endorsements.
Trump batted one-for-four in 2017, losing twice in Alabama and again in the Virginia governor’s race. Only one candidate won with his endorsement last year, Rep. Karen Handel, R-Ga. There were extenuating circumstances in Alabama and Virginia, to be sure. But that atrocious record points at something even more startling. As the New York Times recently reported, Republicans have “lost support in every special election since Trump became president.”
By betting big on West Virginia, by wading into a primary race that should easily be won by the party favorite, Trump risks his endorsement. If Blankenship wins, Trump looks politically impotent. The more subtle and the more worrisome concern is ideological.
There is a populism at play in West Virginia that even Trump might not be able to tap. It is peculiar to a state that has seen its communities decimated by opioids, many of its jobs outsourced by globalism, and politics made meaningless by politicians. It’s a darker and deeper political nihilism of the nothing-ever-mattered-anyway variety.
This is a very different development than what occurred in 2016. Trump made an argument about draining the swamp and restoring Washington. Blankenship has made an argument against the institutions themselves.
Remember, this is a man who wrote a 67-page manifesto from a federal penitentiary, labeling himself “an American political prisoner.” He sees himself as a victim of the Justice Department, a target of democratically appointed regulators, and now a martyr against a political machine geared against him.
Blankenship doesn’t just think politicians are corrupt, he says the entire political system is corrupt. After listening to promises that never come true, West Virginia voters might just agree. Who cares if he is a convicted felon, an unabashed racist, and bandwagon jumper? The only thing that matters for a large portion of the electorate is that they see Blankenship as a victim just like them.
Will this nihilism sweep the country? Probably not, not while the economy is growing. But populism isn’t wedded just to Trump. If things get much worse, if desperation truly sets in, anti-institution populism will eclipse and engulf anti-elitism populism.
