The Queen’s prorogation of parliament on Wednesday, at British Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s request, is at once constitutional and a striking challenge to constitutional norms. But Johnson believes it is necessary if Brexit is to be automatically effected on Oct. 31st.
Still, the stakes are high. Prorogation, which suspends parliament from sitting in a period it might otherwise be expected to sit, is an accepted right of a sitting government. But it has never been applied in a manner such as this: as a means of denying parliamentary action opposed by the government. Johnson denies that this is his intent, but few believe him.
By sending members of parliament back to their constituencies in early September and then returning them on Oct. 14th, Johnson has significantly shortened the time they will have to pass legislative alternatives to his Brexit plan. With a final European Council meeting scheduled for Oct. 17th, unless an emergency follow up meeting is held, European leaders will have to accept Johnson’s proposals to avoid a no-deal Brexit, or else accept a no-deal Brexit as is.
The understanding here is that Parliament is highly unlikely to pass countermanding legislation between Oct. 14th and Oct. 17th.
In that sense, this prorogation isn’t just about restraining parliamentary opposition to his plans. Johnson hopes it will also induce EU leaders to spend the prorogation period dealing more flexibly with him. He and they know that a no-deal Brexit would cause significant damage to both British and European economies. Johnson hopes that a common understanding of his unmovable resolve will enable his reaching an improved Brexit agreement before Oct. 14th. If he succeeds in this effort and reaches a new deal that can pass parliament, Johnson will almost certainly ensure he can call and win a new election.
But there are great risks.
A number of Conservative parliamentarians say they will now support a vote of no confidence in Johnson’s government once parliament sits. If all three of the major opposition parties, all of which oppose Johnson’s plan, vote for no confidence and are joined by more than a few Conservatives, a new government will be formed under a caretaker prime minister. In that scenario, Brexit may never happen.
Johnson knows this. But he’s gambling that he must take this great risk to get Brexit done. The government believes the Brexit 2016 referendum requires it to carry Brexit out. And it is now embarked upon that course.
