Do not buy the “America is (now) a racist country” indictment against Trump. About a third of the subdivisions Obama carried in 2012 went for Trump. And there have been no reports of a sudden influx of Klan members into these districts over the last four years. Rather, these were/are classic swing voters disillusioned with Obama era slow growth and attracted to Trump’s anti-establishment messaging.
Obamacare proved to be the gift that keeps on giving
The latest Obamacare rate hikes hit the market days prior to the election. It is estimated that 33 states will have fewer insurance carriers in 2017 than 2016, and 20 percent of consumers will be left with only one carrier serving their local market. Fact: Democrats have lost 63 House seats, 9 Senate seats, 13 governorships, 524 state legislative seats and 18 State Chambers since the terribly misnamed “Affordable Care Act” was foisted on the American people without a single vote from the minority party. Per Nancy Pelosi, I guess the people really did find out what was “in it.”
Changing demographics were not enough to deliver Clinton from white working class dissatisfaction with the Obama economic record
Trump won the white vote by a record margin of 58/47 percent despite whites dropping from 72 to 70 percent of the total electorate. Yet, long-term trend lines clearly favor Democrats given the party’s proven appeal to America’s minority communities. Nevertheless, Democrats’ preoccupation with identity politics and victimization narratives is a guaranteed turn-off for a vast white working class frustrated with its economic (mis)fortunes and a progressive political correctness culture out of step with great swaths of flyover America.
Middle America – 1 / Establishment Elitists – 0
The hangdog looks on the faces of the cable news outlets not named Fox reflected all you needed to know about media establishment attitudes. This well-educated elite could not/would not bring itself to acknowledge the widespread angst, distrust and unrest among those who do not read the New York Times or Washington Post. But the numbers say it all: Trump won white voters without college degrees by a stunning 67/28 margin. Trump won white evangelical Christians (includes Protestants, Catholics, Mormons, and others) by 81/16 percent. And Trump almost split union households with Clinton. The bottom line: Most of the people who work with their hands, attend religious services, and do not begrudge wealth or success simply reject the progressives’ agenda of “free stuff” and grievance politics. Whether the Democratic Party will moderate its platform or double down on Warren/Sanders liberalism remains to be seen. (I’ll take the “under.”)
Huge black turnout remains essential to Democratic success
Clinton beat Trump 88/8 among African-Americans, but black turnout was down 8 percent from 2012 (despite the Herculean efforts of the Democratic turnout machine in America’s major cities) all of which spelled the difference between defeat and victory in the critical states of Michigan and Pennsylvania. Here, Bill Clinton’s enduring positive image with African-American voters (recall “the First Black President”) did not translate to his wife.
The gender gap was not much different than four years ago
Trump lost among all female voters by 12 points — 54/42 representing only a one point drop off from 2012. Trump won white women by a margin of 53/43 and white married women by approximately 20 points — a predictable result from this usually solid red constituency.
Among Hispanic voters, a Cuban plurality remains solid GOP
The Obama administration’s liberalization of ties with Cuba was supposed to spark youthful Democrat enthusiasm among this key voter bloc in Florida. Yet, Trump carried the Florida-based Cuban community 54/41 (compared to Clinton’s overwhelming 71/26 advantage among non-Cuban Latinos). Seems that Raul’s doubling down on domestic oppression in the aftermath of President Obama’s well documented opening did not give Florida Democrats much to crow about.
Irony Department
A few days after the election, I watched a national cable show wherein a leading House Democrat talked about his party’s goal of recapturing the recently discovered white working class. He then proceeded to endorse numerous Democratic mayors who are promising to resist Trump’s plan to round up and deport criminal illegal aliens. Parenthetical question: Doesn’t every 12 Step Program require one to admit they have a problem before beginning to fix it?
Gov. Robert Ehrlich is a Washington Examiner columnist, partner at King & Spalding and author of three books, including the recently released Turning Point. He was governor of Maryland from 2003 – 2007.
