California’s 25th Congressional District might become home to Republicans once again.
GOP congressional candidate Mike Garcia is currently leading Democratic candidate Christy Smith in the state’s special election for the House seat vacated by Rep. Katie Hill, who resigned late last year after admitting to an inappropriate affair with an aide. The race is still too early to call, but with 76% of the vote total, Garci has 56%, according to NBC News, and Smith has 44%.
This was a significant race for several reasons: First, it was a sort of trial run to test whether election officials could efficiently and legally conduct elections primarily through the mail. Republicans may now soften their position against mail balloting, especially since the coronavirus pandemic continues to raise important questions about the necessity of in-person voting.
The district’s special election also represents a shift, as slight as it is, in California’s Democrat-dominated political ecosystem. If he prevails (votes will keep coming in for days), Garcia will be the first Republican in more than two decades to flip a Democratic House seat in California. I say a “slight” shift, however, because the 25th District was in Republicans’ hands not too long ago. Indeed, the GOP controlled the district for years until Hill unseated Republican incumbent Steve Knight in 2018.
In California, Republicans have been losing ground for years. This special election is their first sign of life in some time. Garcia will face Smith at the ballot box once again in November, when both candidates are up for a full term.
Finally, the race in California will have important consequences for November’s election. Democrats are desperate to hold on to their House majority and retake the Senate, as well as the White House. Republicans believe they can flip the House. And if a district like California’s 25th flips, they might be right. If Garcia wins, the GOP will have won both of this week’s special House elections.
Suffice to say, Tuesday was a good night for the GOP. Now, the question is whether it can carry this momentum forward.
