Outside of the seven candidates who have secured their places on the September debate stage, just three others seem like safe bets: entrepreneur Andrew Yang and former Obama HUD Secretary Julián Castro, who require just one more qualifying poll, and Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota, who’s within striking distance of the 130,000 donor mark.
In theory, Klobuchar should poll much higher than her 1.2% RealClearPolitics average that positions her in ninth place. She has never won a Senate race by anything less than a 20% margin, even while the rest of Minnesota (the only state in the union to have a divided state legislature) boasts a D+1 Cook PVI and gave Hillary Clinton just 1.5% more than President Trump in 2016.
As the Rust Belt state’s former top prosecutor and “Attorney of the Year,” Klobuchar seems well positioned to run in the Biden-dominated moderate lane of the party but with none of the baggage. She’s nearly two decades younger than the septuagenarian vice president, but unlike fellow Sen. Kamala Harris, can campaign on an actual record in the Senate rather than a few cheap sound bites. Anyone on Capitol Hill will remind you that she commands respect across the aisle (though perhaps not among her own staffers) and a great deal of the country was introduced to her clever and tempered prosecutorial demeanor during the Kavanaugh hearings that featured every other Democrat on the Judiciary Committee disgracing themselves and the body of the Senate.
Yet Klobuchar, who wisely embraced politically popular policies such as zoning reform incentives and a public option while denouncing “Medicare for all” and distancing herself from the Green New Deal, has stagnated, seemingly due to a lack of name recognition. The moderate lane of the party, dominated by Biden and barely occupied by the likes of Klobuchar and John Hickenlooper, comprises about a third of the entire primary. If Biden busts either with gaffes or obsequience to bad-faith attacks, Klobuchar could easily dominate that lane and win the primary. But she has to break out the knives (or comb) tonight.
An obvious target for her is Elizabeth Warren.
Although Warren is clearly running in the left lane of the primary, she’s dressed up her socialism with a sort of protectionist grievance clearly aimed at working-class whites in Obama-to-Trump country. Apparently, this has given Klobuchar fans reason to find Warren acceptable. Nearly seven in ten Klobuchar fans would also back an Elizabeth Warren bid. Given that Klobuchar suffers from less name recognition, could she benefit by making herself known to more Warren supporters by pointing out the Massachusetts senator’s shortcomings?
There are two obvious lines of attack to use against Warren. First and less interesting is the simple matter of dollars and cents. Warren wants a $93 trillion Green New Deal including a $32.6 trillion “Medicare for all” package that abolishes private health insurance and pays providers a reimbursement rate 40% lower than that of private insurance that currently subsidizes public plans, and she’s proposed an unconstitutional wealth tax that wouldn’t accrue $3 trillion in a decade’s worth of revenue.
Then, Warren says outright lies such as this:
Just asked Warren about this tweet. She said “everything that I’ve initiated is fully paid for.”
Also made this broader argument: “The fundamental question in this country now is about our values… this isn’t just about how to add numbers up on a page. It’s about our values.” https://t.co/ooP2r6Ko4D
— MJ Lee (@mj_lee) July 29, 2019
So Klobuchar, who has not dug herself into this absurd hole, has a line of attack that will resonate with anyone even considering Biden.
The second line of attack makes her case not just against Warren but also against Trump. Klobuchar is no free-trade fanatic, but her record on the issue offers her much-needed leniency to position herself opposite the insurgent protectionist wings of both parties. If Klobuchar makes the case that Trump’s approval ratings in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota plummeted in 2018 in large part due to the same protectionism that Warren emphatically endorses, she could look like a strong contender for her party’s ticket, or even for the top job.
On paper, Klobuchar is safely in the race through October, as she’s on track to qualify for next two round of debates after this week’s. But if Biden looks increasingly like he can withstand the primary, he will likely win the primary and the presidency. The window of opportunity for Klobuchar to make her case as the most viable moderate is rapidly diminishing, but choosing Warren as her foil could grant her a chance at an upset.
