North Korean leader Kim Jong Un appears to be OK.
South Korean and U.S. intelligence do not believe he is gravely ill or that the regime is preparing for a transition of power. CNN’s report that the U.S. intelligence community is closely monitoring Kim’s health is accurate, but it should not be taken as a cause for excitement. The United States always pays close attention to Kim’s whereabouts, activities, health, and who he keeps in his inner circle.
This stands in contrast to the Daily NK report on Monday that Kim is in ill health after recovering from heart surgery. That report has since been updated to reflect that it was based on one source, not multiple. So until we hear anything to the contrary, we should assume that Kim is both alive and operationally in charge. He is overweight and unhealthy, but Kim is believed to be avoiding public gatherings to avoid contracting the coronavirus.
Still, that doesn’t mean it’s not worth considering who might replace Kim were he to die. After all, the stakes involved here are significant not just for North Korea and South Korea but also for the U.S. Were a relative reformer to enter power, the U.S. might find a new avenue to resolve the Korean nuclear crisis. But were a hard-liner to enter power, Washington might find itself on a course back to the 2017 escalation curve. The present situation is hardly ideal, regardless.
So who might replace Kim?
Well, the first and most obvious answer is Kim Yo Jong, the North Korean leader’s younger sister. The only sibling who is politically active, Kim Yo Jong has won her brother’s trust and the respect of his inner circle. Although she might face a challenge from the next person on this list, she is viewed as smart, decisive, and a credible face on the international stage. She would be well-placed to advance the Kim dynasty and may have accrued significant military support in her favor.
Then there’s Kim Yong Chol. Pyongyang’s hard-liner in chief, Kim Yong Chol has played an instrumental role in North Korea’s ballistic missile escalation toward the U.S. and in the 2018 detente. Kim Yong Chol is viewed by U.S. intelligence as a key obstacle toward Kim Jong Un’s embrace of greater nuclear and ballistic missile concessions. Although Kim Jong Un recently demoted him, Kim Yong Chol remains a top power player at the heart of the regime. His retained influence is indicated by his continued success inserting his functionaries into the heart of power, such as Ri Son Gwon, the new minister of foreign affairs. Extremely adept at influencing elite power circles and possessing impeccable hard-liner credentials with the military and intelligence apparatus, he would be well-placed to make a move for the leadership. And he would have no qualms about crushing any opponents.
A few others also appear possible.
Choe Ryong Hae, for example. Liked and trusted by Kim Jong Un, Choe now sits as the head of the Supreme People’s Assembly. But while a skilled political operator whom Kim Jong Un has trusted with important missions, he is unpopular with the military for attempting to centralize its lucrative business interests under his own hand. Kim Jong Un ended that effort.
Or perhaps Ri Pyong Chol. An adviser to Kim Jong Un, former general, and supervisor over the ballistic missile program, Ri has the credentials to command military confidence and be seen as a credible heir to Kim Jong Un’s ambitions. He might be regarded as offering a balance between the Kim dynasty and the hard-liners.
Kim Su Gil can’t be ruled out in that he’s head of the powerful General Political Bureau. That state organ ensures the military’s loyalty to Kim Jong Un’s agenda and the regime’s Juche ideology.
Or how about Jong Kyong Thaek? Chief of North Korea’s powerful and brutal State Security Department intelligence service? Because of the SSD’s Big Brother-like scale of counterintelligence operations, Jong is well-placed to know prospective challengers for the throne and their vulnerabilities. That said, his security service position means he is viewed by Kim Jong Un as a highly reliable loyalist who would support the dynasty.
There are others. Kim Jae Ryong is a favorite of the chairman but appears to lack the standing and experience to galvanize a power base in his favor. Due to the military’s outsize influence and power, North Korean army chief Pak Jong Chon might also be seen as a contender, but Kim Jong Un has successfully fragmented the military’s political power outside his agenda. Notable here has been the fact that Kim Jong Un has now had eight defense ministers in eight years.
Still, Kim Jong Un is believed to be OK. So don’t expect any major shake-ups soon.
