The impending termination of a major U.S.-Philippines security pact by Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte hardly made a dent on President Trump. Trump said that he “doesn’t mind” the pact’s discontinuation, as it will save the United States “a lot of money.” But he acknowledged that his opinion runs contrary to U.S. officials expressing anguish on its dissolution, including U.S. Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who called it “unfortunate” and “a move in the wrong direction.”
Trump’s nonchalant remarks may come as unsurprising, to say the least expected, in a time when his administration has pressed U.S. allies in the region such as South Korea and Japan to foot the bill in return for providing American-backed security. The Philippines, on the other hand, has been dependent on the largesse of the U.S. military’s might to fend off both internal and external adversaries while it slowly builds its own minimally credible defense posture. Beyond the business of arms purchases from the U.S., this largesse is mainly facilitated through the 1951 Mutual Defense Treaty and its operating mechanisms, namely the Visiting Forces Agreement and the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, ratified in 1998 and 2014, respectively.
However, Duterte’s abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement effectively puts the Mutual Defense Treaty and the EDCA in limbo. The brash-talking leader’s top diplomat acknowledged that the Mutual Defense Treaty will be a mere “piece of paper,” since the Visiting Forces Agreement is the “substance” that makes the treaty work — the legal framework for the presence of U.S. personnel in military exercises and actual military responses. Duterte’s justice secretary further warned that the treaty will be a “hollow agreement” and the EDCA “practically useless” should the termination of the VFA commence. Pundits and politicians have also warned that the absence of the Visiting Forces Agreement makes the country further vulnerable to Chinese intrusions into its territory, and an imminent pivot to Russia, which is further buttressed by Duterte’s overt admiration of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Duterte is here the unrepentant leader who shot himself in the foot, as Trump remains unbothered. But in the grand scheme of U.S. interests in the Asia-Pacific, this is a big loss that could further weaken American influence in the region. As the Philippines has taken the brunt of China’s island-building activities in the South China Sea, the presence of U.S. forces through the Visiting Forces Agreement, provided, at the very least, a formidable deterrence against what would have been further aggressive Chinese actions in said waters. This includes blocking China in check from crossing the Obama-era designated red line of Scarborough Shoal.
The U.S. must maintain close relationships with littoral states such as the Philippines in order to sustain American economic and ideological interests in the region. After all, the South China Sea is a major shipping lane for trade, as well as a potential source of oil and gas. The sea is also a gateway to a panoply of emerging economies beyond China, in which the U.S. would be able to tout the benefits of free markets and proselytize nonbelievers of capitalism.
As per the Visiting Forces Agreement’s rules, the agreement will expire 180 days after either party notifies the other of an intention to scrap it. Until then, the Visiting Forces Agreement’s fate is not yet sealed. The impasse still can be reversed in America’s favor. Trump, for one, has not shut doors completely on the Visiting Forces Agreement, ending his statement on the matter with “we’ll see what happens” alongside acknowledging that he had “a very good” relationship with Duterte. The latter, on the other hand, shares the same feelings toward Trump.
A severing of the VFA would come with enormous opportunity costs and irreversible consequences. If Trump sees U.S. foreign policy through the “America First” lens, the VFA should be seen as a necessary long-term investment rather than as an abrupt cost-saving measure to preserve and protect America’s own interests in the region.
Melchizedek Maquiso is originally from the Philippines and is a graduate of the Master of Public Policy program at the Johnson-Shoyama Graduate School of Public Policy, University of Saskatchewan, Canada. He currently works at a risk consultancy firm. He can be reached via Twitter at @MaquisoM.
