Mass protests in dozens of Russia’s cities against the arrest of Russian opposition activist Alexei Navalny may foreshadow the country’s approaching rupture. Not since gaining absolute power over 20 years ago has President Vladimir Putin faced such a confluence of crises compounded by his own domestic policy failures.

The Russian Federation, held together by the Kremlin’s power monopoly, is approaching a period of turmoil precipitated by several simultaneous crises. The economy was shrinking even before the pandemic struck and the global recession began. International financial sanctions on Russian companies involved in the war against Ukraine and the subversion of Western democracies contributed to the decline, but it is Moscow’s overreliance on revenues from energy exports and its lack of economic diversification that have precipitated an even deeper downturn.