China’s live fire exercises in the Taiwan Strait this week illustrate President Xi Jinping’s increasing agitation towards the breakaway nation.
But why, specifically, is China escalating against the pro-American democracy?
I think for two reasons.
First, Xi is infuriated by recent U.S. moves to give Taiwan access to equipment that will strengthen its submarine and air forces. Xi is also angry about recent U.S. legislation that will allow for more senior visits between U.S. and Taiwanese government officials.
Although these steps have been qualified, China sees any increase in Taiwanese military strength as a grave affront.
After all, Beijing regards Taiwan not as an independent nation but rather as a province in a state of absolute rebellion. With Taiwan also conducting its own military exercises, albeit at a lesser level, it was inevitable that Beijing would push back.
This isn’t just about Xi. The sensitivity of the Taiwan question means that China’s military is always pushing for more aggressive action to repudiate perceived slights by Taipei. The centrality of a unified nation is paramount in Chinese propaganda.
Yet we should also consider these exercises in the context of U.S.-China relations.
That’s because Presidents Trump and Xi have recently seen their budding bromance deteriorate as they battle over trade issues. Correspondingly, by showing Trump his willingness to escalate against Taiwan, Xi hopes to remind the American president that he has the potential to create new crisis events on short notice.
While it’s unlikely that the Chinese will conduct a near-term invasion of Taiwan (Beijing doesn’t want to risk jeopardizing its economic effort to dominate global trade), China’s threats cannot be ignored as simple posturing.
