The Biden-Putin summit in Geneva on June 16 is a pivotal international spotlight for the new U.S. administration.
It will provide a clearer picture of what is currently a contradictory Russia policy — one that defines President Vladimir Putin as a “killer” but allows him to strangle Ukraine. A strangulation, that is, in the form of Biden allowing Moscow to complete its Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline. Biden faces a stark choice at the summit: either to accommodate Putin’s anti-Western campaign or to confront him with painful repercussions.
In dealing with the Kremlin, one of two strategies can be pursued but not combined: imperial accommodation or trans-Atlantic assertiveness. By seeking accommodation, the White House would calculate that it can defuse conflicts and engage in constructive joint initiatives. Unfortunately, such a policy stems from the erroneous premise that the Kremlin is interested in durable compromises. Moscow’s negotiating ploys are based on zero-sum calculations, in which it consolidates its strategic gains through a temporary lull in hostilities. Simultaneously, it probes for further weaknesses and prepares for the next offensive against Western interests.
Biden should also reject the fallacious assumption that Russia possesses “national interests” outside its borders. Acquiescence to such claims diminishes the independence and security of all central-East European states and encourages Moscow to engage in further imperial escapades. Under Putin, Russia’s strategy has revolved around controlling its neighbors’ foreign and security policies, regulating the size of their territories, and selecting their international alliances.
By discarding accommodation, Biden will be perfectly positioned to assert the core trans-Atlantic values of democracy, security, and independence. Values that the Kremlin is intent on upending. Biden needs to make explicit the consequences of Moscow’s anti-Western campaign by zeroing in on three concentric circles of international security: domestic, allied, and partnered.
In the first security circle, an attack on American democracy and its economic security must always elicit a strong and effective response. Putin should be told that following the SolarWinds and JBS meat processor ransomware cyberattacks that originated in Russia, Washington reserves the right to strike back against Russian infrastructure. Simple condemnations without damaging actions will not deter future assaults, and pretending that “private groups” in Russia stage international ransomware assaults without the Kremlin’s connivance simply encourages further hacks.
In the second security circle, Biden must reiterate that he will strengthen NATO so it can respond swiftly and forcefully to any aggression against its members. NATO’s Defender-Europe 2021 exercises, currently held in Europe’s east and involving 28,000 multinational forces from 27 states, serve as an important reminder of allied capabilities. NATO defenses along the entire eastern front from the Arctic to the Caucasus must be reinforced as Moscow continues to conduct provocative exercises and military emplacements close to allied territory.
In the third security circle, Putin should leave Geneva with no doubts that his pretensions to a Russian “sphere of influence” in Europe will never be recognized. That, on the contrary, the United States will strengthen the defense capabilities of Ukraine and Georgia, especially as both countries possess strategic partnership agreements with the U.S. The sovereignty of other former Moscow satellites can also be reinforced by involving them in pan-European and trans-Atlantic initiatives. In defending the independence of Belarus, Washington will not engage with President Alexander Lukashenko, who violently attacks peaceful demonstrations and relies on Putin’s help to remain in power. Putin fears a democratic transformation in Belarus, and a public uprising could precipitate Moscow’s direct military intervention. Biden must underscore to Putin that attempts to absorb Belarus would not only trigger costly sanctions against Russian companies and officials, it would import an activated population that will campaign for democracy inside Russia itself.
Biden has to be clear that the U.S. will not simply defend itself from aggression. It will strike back harder by punishing Russia’s cyberattacks, combating its corruption and influence operations, freezing the foreign assets of Putin’s inner circle, and enabling NATO allies and partners to upgrade their defenses. Biden will have a unique summit stage to exert “power diplomacy” and erase the widespread perception that Putin manipulates American presidents.
Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His recent book, Eurasian Disunion: Russia’s Vulnerable Flanks, is co-authored with Margarita Assenova. His next book is titled Failed State: Planning for Russia’s Rupture.
