Things are looking rough for Joe Biden. But don’t count him out of the 2020 race yet.
After last week’s Iowa caucuses ended in unmitigated disaster, Friday night’s Democratic presidential debate in New Hampshire was the most important debate so far for the 2020 candidates. It was a pivotal opportunity for candidates to calm the rising sense of uncertainty among Democratic voters who are looking for a candidate they believe can both beat President Trump and excite a diverse and varied party.
This is becoming more important than ever because Democrats have a major hurdle to climb as Trump’s projections for reelection have never looked better.
According to Gallup, Trump’s approval is now 49%, a personal best for the president. Additionally, confidence in the economy is the highest it has been in two decades. Running against Trump’s character and behavior has not worked for Democrats to date, and neither has talking about pie-in-the-sky policy ideas that wouldn’t ever pass a Republican-controlled Senate.
With that said, Friday’s debate was mostly about one candidate: Biden. He has struggled throughout the Democratic primary thus far. But despite Biden’s apparent weaknesses and the various attacks he’s faced from his opponents, the candidate’s strong standing in national polling hasn’t changed much. This is a testament to the affection and goodwill Biden has with Democratic voters.
Biden had the most to lose on Friday night. For Biden, the debate wasn’t just about reassuring voters; it was also about reassuring Democratic donors, who he’ll need in order to compete after the South Carolina primary. They’re desperate for reassurance because Biden bombed in Iowa, coming in fourth place. Biden’s poor placement cuts against his argument that he is the best candidate for Democrats to face Trump, and he is expected to underperform in Tuesday’s New Hampshire primary as well.
But at Friday night’s debate, Biden showed that he’s still a fighter.
It’s important for Democratic voters to know that their potential nominee has the battle scars to face Trump, one of the most brutal campaigners in American history. They need to know that their candidate can get knocked down and get back up again. Playing nice isn’t going to cut it. Yet Democrats also need someone who is pragmatic and experienced, which describes Biden more than any of the other Democratic candidates.
More than anything else, Democratic voters appear to want a return to normalcy more than big ideas and lofty policy plans. Democrats just want a break from the chaos of this administration, and arguably, so do independent voters. Whether or not that’s enough in the midst of a strong economy remains to be seen.
But don’t count Biden out yet.
The Democratic race is still wide open, and that benefits Biden in South Carolina. The state may serve as Biden’s firewall and boost him heading into super Tuesday. The reality is that none of the Democratic candidates can become the nominee of their party without winning over African American voters, and the only candidate that looks capable of doing that right now is still Joe Biden.
Shermichael Singleton (@Shermichael_) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is a Republican strategist and political analyst regularly appearing on MSNBC.
