In case you haven’t noticed, Democrats and their cohorts in the anti-Trump media are giddy about 2018. After Conor Lamb’s victory in Pennsylvania’s recent special election, Pennsylvania Democratic Party Chairman Jack Hanna proclaimed: “Let it be known that the blue wave of 2018 began in Pennsylvania with Conor’s victory.”
The liberal media certainly agrees. CNN’s Chris Cillizza recently claimed Democrats have a “much better chance of retaking the House in 2018” than they did two weeks ago. Mother Jones’ Kevin Drum was even more blunt, claiming “Republicans are terrified about the 2018 midterms” and predicting a “surge” at the state level.
They could all use a dose of humility. According to the FiveThirtyEight Generic Ballot, the Democrats’ lead over Republicans is slowly narrowing. Last December, Democrats led Republicans by a 14-point margin (50 percent to 36 percent). As of this week, their lead has shrunk to six points (46 percent to 40 percent). Fox News has the lead at five points, while Quinnipiac University’s pollsters peg it at just four points.
In nautical terms, a four- to six-point advantage is barely a ripple, let alone a “blue wave.” Republicans should take a deep breath and count their blessings in 2018. Despite the prevailing media narrative, there are many of them.
For starters, Republicans continue to outraise Democrats. In February, the Republican National Committee raised nearly $13 million, breaking its previous February fundraising record. The debt-ridden Democratic National Committee raised less $7 million last month, while seeing its total liabilities rise to over $6 million.
In 2017, the RNC raised $130 million — more than twice the DNC’s haul. Much of it came from digital fundraising, as Republicans added more than one million email addresses in the last quarter of 2017 alone. The RNC is also expected to double the small-dollar donation database that raised more than $250 million for President Trump in 2016. The RNC’s counterparts at House and Senate campaign arms are breaking similar fundraising records.
Public opinion is also shifting in the Republicans’ favor on the issues. According to a New York Times poll (yes, the New York Times), most Americans support President Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act. Job creators are especially optimistic: Roughly 80 percent of small business owners support the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, while even more (83 percent) expect it to have a positive impact on the economy. Nearly 40 percent of small business owners plan to use their tax savings to hire additional employees, while others hope to invest in new technology and offer new services.
We’re already seeing renewed investment across the country. Because of federal tax cuts, more than 460 U.S. employers have announced wage hikes, 401(k) increases, and generous bonuses — benefiting more than four million Americans. As more and more Americans see greater take-home pay, they’ll be more inclined to reward Republicans at the ballot box in November.
The booming economy only helps Republicans, too. Despite recent market volatility, U.S. consumer confidence remains near an all-time high, while the unemployment rate has dropped to 4.1 percent — the lowest level in 17 years.
How will Democrats message against high consumer confidence and low unemployment?
And therein lies the Republicans’ greatest advantage: They’re not liberal Democrats. Even as tax cuts hit worker paychecks and the economy booms, Democrats are busy peddling their “Impeach Trump” obsessions, strict gun control policies, open borders, and other unpopular “reforms.” Many congressional Democrats joined the “March for Our Lives” over the weekend, siding with left-wing activists over law-abiding gun owners. DNC Chairman Tom Perez, meanwhile, pledged to “take on the gun lobby.”
The more outraged and angry the “resistance” becomes amid a strong economy and growing prosperity, the smaller the blue wave becomes, and the better Republicans will do in 2018.
Guy Short (@shortguy1) is a former congressional chief of staff, six-time Republican National Convention delegate, and Republican strategist with over 25 years of experience in politics.
