Let’s not freak out over Iran shooting a drone.
True, at $130 million, the drone wasn’t cheap. But its loss doesn’t endanger American or allied lives, and the Pentagon is now surging more drones into the Persian Gulf. Iran will not be able to translate the destruction of one drone into broader strategic effect. They’ve got a propaganda win, but it’s a small one. President Trump should warn Iran that if it downs another drone in international airspace, the unit responsible will be targeted. As I say though, we shouldn’t get distracted here. What really matters is protecting international shipping and maintaining sanctions towards restraining Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Those concerns play into three critical American strategic interests.
First, our restraint of Iran’s nuclear program. Second, our widening of the breach between the more-moderate Iranian political bloc under President Hassan Rouhani, and hardliners associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. That breach will make effective diplomacy easier and conflict less likely. Third, our preservation of free movement through international waters. That principle underpins a U.S.-led international order that makes the world safer and wealthier.
So how do we serve these interests? The U.S. and its allies should provide military escorts to tankers in the Gulf of Oman and the Strait of Hormuz. We should make clear than any Iranian vessels which pass within an identified tankers-only zone will be treated as hostile and fired upon. The Iranians can be given special access routes for transiting across the Persian Gulf to Qatar. But providing safe zones for international shipping will remove Iran’s primary means of leveraging threat. It will also make clear to Iran that its current drip drip style escalation: attacking tankers, then firing missiles into a Saudi civilian airport, then attacking tankers again, then firing a rocket into a U.S. base in Iraq, then shooting down a drone, won’t succeed.
There are other diplomatic opportunities here. We could, for example, increase pressure on China, which is highly reliant on regional oil, by refusing to escort its tanker shipments unless Beijing sends Chinese warships to support the escort operation. This will make clear to Xi Jinping that being Iran’s friend (yes, it’s odd to see communist authoritarians buddying up with Shia theocrats) carries costs for China’s economy.
Regardless, the drone-downing is but an annoying side show. Focus on the strategic context.
